国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250612

Report Date - The report is dated June 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different trends such as price fluctuations, range - bound trading, and upward or downward trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - Copper: Inventory reduction restricts price decline. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,290 yuan with a daily increase of 0.52%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,647 dollars with a decline of 0.80%. China's 1 - 5 month cumulative import of copper ore and concentrates increased by 7.4% year - on - year [5][7] - Aluminum: Need to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US negotiations. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,250 yuan. Alumina is expected to run weakly, with the Shanghai alumina main contract closing at 2,895 yuan [8] - Zinc: Short - term oscillation, with attention to inventory. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,140 yuan with an increase of 1.35%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons [11] - Lead: Range - bound trading. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,845 yuan with a decline of 0.21%. LME lead inventory decreased by 4,500 tons [14] - Tin: Stopped falling and rebounded. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,530 yuan with an increase of 0.80%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 4,800 yuan compared to the previous day [18] - Nickel: The reality support and weak expectation are in a game, and the nickel price oscillates. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 121,790 yuan. Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, and the steel price is range - bound. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,600 yuan [22] Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, and the fundamentals remain weak. The 2507 contract of carbonate lithium closed at 61,680 yuan [28] - Industrial Silicon: The fundamentals are weak, and the upside space is limited. The Si2507 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,560 yuan. Polysilicon: The spot is weak, and the disk has a downward drive. The PS2507 contract of polysilicon closed at 34,255 yuan [31] - Iron Ore: Expectations are volatile, and it oscillates within a range. The futures price closed at 707.0 yuan with an increase of 1.22% [34] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are in wide - range oscillations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,991 yuan with an increase of 0.67%, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,108 yuan with an increase of 0.78% [37] - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Silicon ferrosilicon is in wide - range oscillations due to production cuts in major producing areas. The silicon ferrosilicon 2507 contract closed at 5,298 yuan. Manganese silicon is weakly oscillating as overseas miners' quotes decline. The manganese silicon 2507 contract closed at 5,472 yuan [41] - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke is in wide - range oscillations. Coking coal is in wide - range oscillations as safety inspections become stricter. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 783.5 yuan with a decline of 0.19%, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1,356 yuan with an increase of 0.52% [46] - Steam Coal: Demand is yet to be released, and it is in wide - range oscillations. The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day [51] - Rubber: Oscillating. The rubber main contract closed at 13,890 yuan during the day session [61] - Synthetic Rubber: Supported by strong crude oil, it is in short - term oscillations. The main contract of synthetic rubber (07 contract) closed at 11,225 yuan [65] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There are large differences in pressure from the origin, and it is grinding the bottom in oscillations. The palm oil is in a state of range - bound trading with a focus on the pressure from the origin [58] - Soybean Oil: The driving force is temporarily weak, and it is in range - bound trading. The soybean oil is currently in a range - bound state with limited driving factors [58] - Soybean Meal: Due to good weather and a decline in US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. The soybean meal market was affected by the weather and US soybean prices [60] - Soybean: Due to the expectation of provincial reserve sales, the futures price declined. The soybean market was influenced by the expectation of provincial reserve sales [60] - Corn: Oscillating strongly. The corn market shows a relatively strong oscillating trend [62] - Sugar: Consolidating at a low level. The sugar market is in a low - level consolidation phase [64] - Cotton: Continuing to be affected by market sentiment. The cotton market is still under the influence of market sentiment [65] - Egg: The negative impact of the plum - rain season has been released, waiting for the confirmation of chicken culling. The egg market is waiting for the impact of chicken culling after the plum - rain season [67] - Live Pig: Still waiting for the confirmation of the spot market. The live pig market is awaiting the performance of the spot market [68] - Peanut: Pay attention to the spot market. The peanut market requires attention to the spot price [69]