Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For PVC, the rating implies a weak outlook with a forecast of weak and volatile trading, suggesting a cautious approach [2]. - For caustic soda, the mid - term outlook is weak, recommending short - selling the 09 contract [3]. - For styrene, it is recommended to short on rebounds due to high valuation and loose supply - demand [5]. - For soda ash, a short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical market is influenced by a combination of factors including macro - economic conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. Each product has its own unique supply - demand dynamics, cost factors, and market drivers [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On June 11, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4832 yuan/ton (+22). The long - term demand is weak due to real - estate drag and export constraints. Supply pressure is high with new investment plans in Q3. The market is macro - driven, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on the 4850 yuan/ton resistance level [2]. Caustic Soda - On June 11, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2332 yuan/ton (+8). Supply is high with some new installations expected, and there are mid - June to early - July maintenance periods. Demand from the alumina industry has a weakening restart expectation, and non - aluminum demand is in a slow season. The price is expected to be weak and volatile, with the 09 contract recommended for short - selling, focusing on the 2400 yuan/ton resistance [3]. Styrene - On June 11, the styrene contract was at 7349 yuan/ton (+3). Short - term it may rebound due to strong oil prices, but with high valuation and a tendency towards loose supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rebounds, with the price range of 6900 - 7700 yuan/ton [5]. Rubber - On June 11, the rubber market oscillated. The price has rebounded due to macro - sentiment but lacks fundamental support. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate, with the focus on macro - news [6]. Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 1.48% to 1667 yuan/ton. Supply is high, demand from the agricultural and industrial sectors is weak, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to continue weakening, with the 09 contract operating in the 1650 - 1850 yuan/ton range [7][8]. Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 0.18% to 2282 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, the main downstream demand (methanol - to - olefins) is okay but has some planned maintenance, and traditional downstream demand is weak. Inventory is rising, and the 09 contract is expected to trade in the 2180 - 2300 yuan/ton range [9]. Polyolefins - On June 11, the L and PP contracts closed at 7102 yuan/ton and 6960 yuan/ton respectively. Supply is under pressure with capacity expansion in June - July. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the L2509 in the 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton range and PP2509 in the 6850 - 7200 yuan/ton range [10][11]. Soda Ash - The spot market is weak, with prices falling. Supply is increasing with the resumption of production from maintenance. Downstream demand from the glass industry is poor, and inventory is accumulating. The upside potential of the futures is limited, and a short position is recommended for the 01 contract [12].
能源化工日报-20250612
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-06-12 01:56