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期指：靴子落地，或转震荡整理走势
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-12 01:56

Report Information - Report Date: June 12, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Futures Index: After the Uncertainty is Resolved, It May Shift to a Sideways Consolidation Trend [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - After the uncertainty is resolved, the futures index may shift to a sideways consolidation trend [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Index and Spot Data Tracking - On June 11, all the current-month contracts of the four major futures indices rose. IF rose 0.89%, IH rose 0.79%, IC rose 0.75%, and IM rose 0.63% [2] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of futures indices declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 13,150 lots, IH decreased by 2,866 lots, IC decreased by 5,584 lots, and IM decreased by 28,076 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 12,268 lots, IH decreased by 462 lots, IC decreased by 28 lots, and IM decreased by 13,541 lots [2][3] 2. Futures Index Basis - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM from May 15 to June 11 are presented graphically [5] 3. Changes in the Positions of the Top 20 Futures Index Members - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, in the IF2506 contract, long positions increased by 2,725 lots and short positions increased by 3,286 lots [6] 4. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The取值 range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [7] - Important drivers include the Middle East tension overwhelming the weak CPI in the US, the retreat of the US stock market's upward trend, the sharp rise of crude oil by over 5%, the decline of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, and the performance of various sectors such as quantum computing, rare earths, etc. In the A-share market, the three major indices rose collectively, with the rare earth permanent magnet concept booming, and sectors such as the automobile industry chain and short drama game concept stocks being active [7]