2025年5月贸易数据点评：出口：回归正常化

Export and Import Trends - In May 2025, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, down from 8.1% in April, while import growth was -3.4%, compared to -0.2% previously[4] - Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% in May, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels[7] - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025[7] Country-Specific Insights - Exports to the US dropped significantly by 34.5%, while exports to ASEAN and Latin America also slowed to 14.8% and 2.3%, respectively[12] - Exports to other regions increased to 11.8%, up from 10.4% previously, indicating resilience in non-US trade[12] Product-Specific Performance - Agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw significant declines, while machinery and raw materials remained stable[17] - Integrated circuits and ship exports continued to perform strongly, with automotive exports showing signs of recovery[17] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Optimists believe that the decline in May's export growth is temporary, expecting a rebound in June due to reduced tariffs, while pessimists fear a significant drop in orders due to preemptive exports in April[24] - The report suggests that while export momentum may normalize, a drastic decline is unlikely, with potential further decreases in year-on-year comparisons in Q4 due to high base effects[21] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include judicial friction over tariffs that could lead to further reductions in US tariffs[26]