美元信用：脆弱边界的紧平衡

Group 1: Dollar Credit and Economic Dynamics - The recent high interest rate environment has led to a significant cooling of private credit expansion in the U.S., indicating a fragile balance for the dollar[1] - The correlation between global capital inflow and the dollar index is weak, primarily due to the mirrored relationship between U.S. capital inflow and trade deficits[6] - U.S. residents' net worth is positively correlated with the dollar index, with stock net worth showing a stronger correlation than housing net worth[21] Group 2: Risks and Policy Challenges - There is a notable tail risk of a "debt-recession" spiral if economic policies do not adjust significantly, particularly under the current high interest rates[26] - The U.S. government’s pursuit of trade barriers and a weaker dollar could harm resident welfare and exacerbate the tail risks associated with high bond yields[32] - The ongoing high interest rates and low growth environment raise questions about the sustainability of government debt, potentially leading to a "debt-recession" spiral[34]