格林大华期货国债早盘提示-20250612

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial - bond sector is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher and fluctuated horizontally at a high level throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.23%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.02%. The treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Transaction - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated horizontally at a high level. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.23%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.02% [1] Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 164 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with 214.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan [1] - In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market on Wednesday was basically the same as the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.36% the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.53% (1.51% the previous trading day) [1] - In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds on Wednesday declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 1.45 BP to 1.42%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.30 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year decreased by 1.49 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year decreased by 2.05 BP to 1.85% [1] - On June 11, Li Chenggang, China's chief trade negotiator and vice - minister of commerce, said that at the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, both sides had professional, rational, in - depth, and candid communication. Both sides in principle reached a framework for implementing the consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5 and the Geneva talks. The progress of the London talks is beneficial for further enhancing mutual trust between China and the US, promoting the stable and healthy development of China - US economic and trade relations, and injecting positive energy into the global economy [1] - The US CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year (estimated 2.4%, previous value 2.3%); month - on - month it increased by 0.1% (estimated 0.2%, previous value 0.2%). The US core CPI in May increased by 2.8% year - on - year (estimated 2.9%, previous value 2.8%); month - on - month it increased by 0.1% (estimated 0.3%, previous value 0.2%) [1] Market Logic - China's exports denominated in US dollars in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 6.2% and the previous value of 8.1%, but still maintained relatively fast positive growth. In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, and PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month. The price level remained low, which is beneficial for bond market bulls [1] - On June 11, China issued a press release on the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, indicating that both sides had positive communication. Although there was no joint statement like the previous Geneva talks, it still showed a positive side. On Wednesday, both China's stock market and bond market rose, without a one - way impact on risk preference [1][2] Trading Strategy - Transaction - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]