Group 1: Corn Report Industry Investment Rating - Low long [1] Core View - Short - term: The bullish sentiment in the spot market is rising, and the market is operating strongly. Medium - term: The supply pattern in China is expected to gradually tighten, and the spot price will still run strongly. However, the narrowing price difference between corn and wheat and the increase in wheat substitution limit the upside space. Long - term: Policy grain source release and wheat substitution expectations may limit the price upside, and China's corn pricing logic remains import substitution + planting cost, with policy orientation being the key focus [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Overnight, the main contract of CBOT corn futures rose and then fell, with a daily decline of 0.06%. Overnight, the domestic corn futures fluctuated narrowly, and the 2507 contract closed at 2378 yuan/ton with a change of 0% [1]. Important Information - Yesterday, the upward trend of corn spot prices continued. The mainstream purchase price in Northeast China was 2217 yuan/ton, stable compared with the previous day; the mainstream average purchase price in North China was 2445 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day with a narrowing increase. The prices at north - south ports also continued to rise. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2290 - 2325 yuan/ton, up 10 - 15 yuan/ton, and the transaction price at Shekou Port was 2450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. As of June 11, the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 100 lots, totaling 216,495 lots. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton. Feed enterprises will increase the wheat substitution ratio from 5% - 10% in Q1 to 25% - 30% in Q2. On June 11, the planned sales volume of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn auction was 56,000 tons, all of which were sold. The planned quantity of the corn purchase - sale two - way transaction of China Grain Reserves Beijing Company was 19,000 tons, and the transaction quantity was 8,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 43% [1]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: Range - bound operation; Medium - term: Maintain a low - long thinking; Short - term: Expect to reach 2400 yuan, and then the expectation turns into pressure. The upper pressure of the 2507 contract is 2390 - 2400 yuan, and that of the 2509 contract is 2420 yuan. Currently, the pressure is effective, and the market starts to organize and repair [1]. Group 2: Live Pigs Report Industry Investment Rating - Range [3] Core View - Short - term: Before the weight pressure is relieved, it is difficult for pig prices to rise, and they may continue to fluctuate weakly. Medium - term: There is still an expectation of increased pig supply, and whether there will be a seasonal upward trend from July to September depends on whether the weight reduction can be completed in June. Long - term: The inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level, and if there is no epidemic, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Yesterday, live pig futures fluctuated strongly. The LH2509 contract rose 0.26% to close at 13,600 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.11% to close at 13,325 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On the 11th, the national average live pig price was 14.04 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. This morning, pig prices were weak in the north and stable in the south. In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, flat month - on - month and up 1.3% year - on - year. At the end of April, the inventory of medium and large pigs increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. On June 11, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.05 yuan/jin, the same as the previous day. On June 5, the average weekly slaughter weight of live pigs was 125.84 kg, down 0.05 kg from the previous week with a significantly narrowing week - on - week decline. On June 11, the live pig futures warehouse receipts did not change, with a cumulative total of 525 lots [3]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: High short; Medium - term: Range; Short - term: Fluctuate and organize, test the support effect. The short - term support of the 2509 contract is 13,300 - 13,400 yuan, and the short - term pressure is 13,700 - 13,800 yuan. The lower support of the 2511 contract is 13,000 - 13,100 yuan, and the short - term pressure is 13,400 - 13,500 yuan [3]. Group 3: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating - High short [3] Core View - Short - term: The egg supply is stable, and downstream purchases are based on demand, so the short - term egg price is mainly weak and stable. Medium - term: The number of newly - laid hens is increasing, and the theoretical inventory of laying hens is still increasing, combined with the seasonal decline expectation during the plum - rain season, so the near - month futures contracts are still bearish. However, after the spot price remains low from June to July, the concentrated large - scale culling by farmers may lead to a phased supply reduction, and combined with the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak season, it may drive a phased rebound in the spot price from August to September [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Yesterday, egg futures showed mixed trends. The JD2507 contract fell 0.35% to close at 2825 yuan/500 kg, and the JD2508 contract rose 0.14% to close at 3515 yuan/500 kg [3]. Important Information - On the 11th, the spot price was mainly weak and stable. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.66 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. The spot price of Guantao eggs remained the same as the previous day at 2.56 yuan/jin. On the 11th, the average inventory in the production link was 0.99 days, up 0.02 days from the previous day; the inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, up 0.02 days from the previous day. On the 11th, the average price of old hens was 4.51 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of June 5, the weekly culling age of old hens was 515 days, 6 days less than the previous week. In May, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The theoretical estimated inventory of laying hens in June is 1.34 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45% [3]. Trading Strategy - Previously, it was recommended to pay attention to the band short - selling opportunity after the 2507 contract was under pressure. This week, if the 2800 support is effective, the previous short positions can consider partial profit - taking. Currently, it is recommended to take partial profit and wait and see. If the spot price further weakens, the 07 contract still has some room to squeeze the premium. The 08/09 contracts test the lower support, with the 08 contract being relatively strong and the 09/10 contracts being relatively weak. You can also wait for the band low - long opportunity of the 8/9 contracts after the premium repair is completed [3][4].
玉米生猪鸡蛋早盘提示-20250612
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-06-12 02:10