美国5月CPI点评：美国通胀的反弹斜率及持久性尚待观察

Group 1: Inflation Trends - The overall CPI in the US increased by 2.4% year-on-year in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, which was below market expectations[2] - Core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, also falling short of market expectations[2] - Energy inflation continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% in May, while food prices increased by 2.9% year-on-year[3] Group 2: Core Inflation Insights - Core inflation remained stable, indicating that the impact of tariffs on US inflation may be less than anticipated[3] - The month-on-month growth rate of core CPI was lower than expected, which may alleviate market concerns about inflation[3] - The contribution of core goods to inflation is increasing, with core goods year-on-year growth rising to 0.28% in May[3] Group 3: Tariff Impact - Tariffs are expected to have a gradual impact on inflation, with evidence of businesses passing costs onto consumers[4] - Less than 30% of businesses chose not to pass on tariff costs, with most completing cost transfers within three months[4] - The potential for "stagflation" is currently low, as stable oil and food prices help anchor inflation expectations[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, with the first potential cut expected in Q4 2025, possibly fewer than anticipated[5] - Ongoing monitoring of inflation trends and tariff policies is essential, especially with upcoming FOMC meetings and tax legislation[5]