煤焦早报：持仓再次上行，盘面震荡偏弱-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The rating for coke is "sideways" [1]. - The rating for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since June, the macro - environment has been gradually improving. The market is becoming less sensitive to Sino - US trade frictions, and China's monetary policy continues to strengthen. The real - estate policy may accelerate the industry's bottom - hitting process, and the rumored crude steel production limit policy could change the market's long - short balance [4]. - For coking coal, supply is slightly shrinking due to inventory topping and safety and environmental protection restrictions. The key signals to watch are mine - end active or administrative production cuts. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost of coke is likely to provide support, and factors like cost rebound or crude steel reduction boosting industrial chain profits could drive up the price of coke [5]. - In extreme market conditions, coking coal is the main battlefield for long - short games. There is a possibility of short - sellers pushing prices down again. The market bottom can be confirmed by significant position reduction with rapid price decline or mine - end production cuts. Short - term advice is to hold a small long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Mine开工率 decreased slightly, with 523 mines reporting an 86.3%开工率 (-2.96) and 110 coal - washing plants reporting a 60.59%开工率 (-0.96). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises remained flat at 74.93% (-0.15) [2]. Inventory - Upstream inventory increased, with 523 mines having 447.53 million tons of clean coal inventory (+37.08) and coal - washing plants having 214.74 million tons of clean coal inventory (+11.48). Downstream inventory decreased, with 247 steel mills having 798.75 million tons of inventory (+7.54), 230 coking enterprises having 737.96 million tons of inventory (-14.6), and port inventory at 301.56 million tons (-4.53) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal was reported at 878 yuan/ton (-15), the active contract was at 783.5 yuan/ton (-1.5), the basis was 114.5 yuan/ton (-13.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -9.5 yuan/ton (-3) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises remained flat at 74.93% (-0.15). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased to 91.32% (-0.44), and the daily average pig iron output was 243.6 million tons (-1.17) [3]. Inventory - Upstream inventory increased, with 230 coking enterprises having 88.41 million tons of inventory (+10.08). Downstream inventory decreased, with 247 steel mills having 645.8 million tons of inventory (-9.13) and port inventory at 214.15 million tons (-3.03) [3]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1270 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract was at 1356 yuan/ton (+7), the basis was 10 yuan/ton (-7), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -17.5 yuan/ton (-2) [3].