早间评论-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing short - term and long - term investment suggestions based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [5][8][11]. - It suggests that while the current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, different asset classes have different investment opportunities. For example, it is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and precious metals, and provides specific trading strategies for each futures product [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income (Bonds) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising by 0.23%, 0.06%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - Analysis: The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. Although China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, considering the Sino - US trade situation, it is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. 3.2 Equity Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures rose by 0.89%, 0.79%, 0.75%, and 0.63% respectively [8][9]. - Analysis: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and the market lacks confidence in corporate earnings. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors can consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 777.54, up 0.32%, and the night - session closed at 780.36; the main silver contract closed at 8,902, up 0.17%, and the night - session closed at 8830 [11]. - Analysis: The World Bank has lowered the global GDP growth forecast for 2025. Given the complex global trade and financial environment and the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.4 Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The real - estate downturn and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. As the market enters the off - season, prices are at a new low for the year and may continue to decline. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. From a valuation perspective, the downside is limited. Technically, they may enter a weak - shock phase. Investors can consider short - selling on rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. - Iron Ore: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand balance has weakened marginally, but from a valuation perspective, it is still at a relatively high level. Technically, it has found support at previous lows. Investors can consider buying at low levels, taking profits on rebounds, and setting stop - losses if it breaks previous lows [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The market is in a state of oversupply, with high inventory and weak demand. Technically, they may stop falling in the short - term but remain weak in the medium - term. Investors can consider short - selling on rebounds and manage their positions carefully [17]. - Ferroalloys: On the previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract fell 1.22% to 5486 yuan/ton, and the main silicon - iron contract rose 0.35% to 5184 yuan/ton. Supply is high while demand is weak, and high inventory is putting pressure on the market. In the short - term, prices are under pressure, and long - position investors should be cautious. If spot losses increase significantly, investors can consider low - value call options [19][20]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The Sino - US negotiations in London are positive for market sentiment. The US has set a deadline for the trade agreement, and tariff frictions are in the second half. The number of US oil and gas rigs has decreased, and shale oil production has increased while on - shore conventional oil production has decreased. It is recommended to take a long - position on the main crude - oil contract [21][22][23]. - Fuel Oil: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and broke through the moving - average group. The increase in ARA fuel - oil inventory is positive for the market. As tariff frictions enter the agreement - signing stage, global trade demand is recovering, and the rebound in crude - oil prices will drive up fuel - oil prices. It is recommended to take a long - position on the main fuel - oil contract [24][25]. - Synthetic Rubber: On the previous trading day, the main synthetic - rubber contract fell 0.04%. Supply pressure has eased slightly, demand improvement is limited, and cost is expected to rebound, which may drive the market to stabilize. Investors can wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. - Natural Rubber: On the previous trading day, the main natural - rubber contract rose 0.83%. The market is worried about future demand, and domestic inventory has increased against the seasonal trend. Supply has been affected by rain, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities after the market stabilizes [28][30]. - PVC: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose 0.56%. The supply - demand drive is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. The market is expected to remain in a low - level shock pattern with occasional rebounds. It is currently in a bottom - shock phase [31][33]. - Urea: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract fell 1.24%. Industrial demand has decreased, and agricultural demand is tepid. After the price decline, export and agricultural demand may support the market. Investors can consider taking long positions at low prices and continue to monitor policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [35][36]. - PX: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract fell 0.37%. The supply - demand structure is tight in the short - term, and the cost is supported by crude - oil prices. However, after the PXN spread has recovered to a relatively high level, there is a downward pressure. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to crude - oil price changes and macro - policy adjustments [37]. - PTA: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract fell 0.43%. The supply - demand structure has weakened, but inventory reduction has made it relatively resistant to decline. The cost is supported. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, and investors can consider trading within a low - price range and pay attention to opportunities to shrink the processing fee [39]. - Ethylene Glycol: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene - glycol contract rose 0.4%. Supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. In the short - term, there is no upward drive, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [40]. - Short - Fiber: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2507 main contract rose 0.16%. Downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supportive. As the processing fee is compressed, production may be further reduced. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low prices [42]. - Bottle Chips: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chips 2507 main contract fell 0.17%. The raw - material price has adjusted downward, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to follow the cost trend and oscillate. Investors should pay attention to cost - price changes [43]. - Soda Ash: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 1202 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. Production is stable, and supply remains high, while downstream demand is tepid. In the short - term, the market is expected to be weakly stable with narrow price fluctuations. In the medium - to long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to improve, and long - position investors should be cautious [44][45]. - Glass: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 998 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drive. The market is affected by sentiment, and prices are mostly stable. In the short - term, there may be a bullish sentiment, but its sustainability is limited. Short - position investors at low levels should control their positions [46]. - Caustic Soda: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 2332 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. Some plants are under maintenance, and production capacity utilization is about 83.1%. In the long - term, new production capacity is expected to be released, and the overall supply is relatively loose. There are regional differences, and long - position investors should control their positions [47][49]. - Pulp: On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract closed at 5346 yuan/ton, down 0.78%. The supply - demand situation is weak, with high inventory and no obvious improvement in downstream pulp consumption. The increase in Brazilian shipments to China in May is a negative factor. The market is waiting for a signal to break the deadlock. In June, it is the traditional off - season, and the market is expected to improve in August [50][51]. - Lithium Carbonate: On the previous trading day, the main lithium - carbonate contract rose 1.68% to 61680 yuan/ton. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The decline in ore prices has broken the cost support, and supply is expected to increase. Demand is weakening, and inventory remains high. Prices are difficult to reverse until large - scale ore - production capacity is cleared [52]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main contract rose 0.93% to 3047 yuan/ton, and the soybean - oil main contract fell 0.93% to 7694 yuan/ton. US Midwest crop weather is good, and US soybean futures fell overnight. Brazilian soybean production is at a record high, and domestic soybean supply is abundant. It is expected that the upward movement of the soybean - meal main contract will be under pressure, and investors should wait and see. For soybean oil, the cost support at the bottom is strengthening, and investors can consider low - value call options [59][60]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm - oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days. In May, production and inventory increased, and exports also increased. In China, palm - oil imports have decreased year - on - year, and inventory is at the second - lowest level in the past seven years. It is recommended to consider widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [61][62][63]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: Canadian rapeseed futures rose due to dry weather and improved trade prospects. In China, rapeseed - oil imports have increased year - on - year, and rapeseed - meal imports have increased in April. Rapeseed inventory is at a low level, while rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventory are at high levels. It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities after the rapeseed - meal price correction [64][65]. - Cotton: Domestic and foreign cotton futures oscillated. Weather is favorable for cotton growth, and Sino - US negotiations are expected to be positive. The US cotton - growing rate is 76%, and the优良率 is 49%. Global cotton production has decreased, and consumption has increased. Currently, the industry is in the off - season, and new orders are limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies [66][67][68]. - Sugar: Domestic and foreign sugar futures fell. The 2024/25 sugar - production season has ended, with an increase in production and sales. India's sugar production is expected to be high, and Brazil's production is expected to pick up. Currently, domestic inventory is low, and imports are expected to increase. It is recommended to take long positions in batches [70][71][72]. - Apple: Domestic apple futures oscillated. There are reports of production cuts in some regions, and the specific production data will be clear after bagging. The inventory in the main producing areas has decreased, and the price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to future production - survey data [72]. - Hog: The national average hog price rose slightly. In the north, prices rebounded, and in the south, they were stable or slightly increased. In the short - term, consumption is improving, but in the medium - term, demand is weak. It is recommended to consider long - position spreads for peak - season contracts [73][74][75]. - Egg: The average egg price in the main producing and selling areas fell. The cost per catty of eggs has decreased, and the breeding profit is negative. The number of laying hens in May increased year - on - year and is expected to continue to increase in June. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts [76][77]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The main corn contract rose 0.08% to 2374 yuan/ton, and the main corn - starch contract rose 0.26% to 2709 yuan/ton. Corn - growing weather is good, and US corn futures fell overnight. North - port and south - port corn inventories are decreasing, and the supply pressure is short - term. Corn demand is growing slightly. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see [78][79][80]. - Log: The main 2507 contract closed at 765.0 yuan/ton, down 1.54%. The number of New Zealand log shipments to China in the 24th week is stable, and inventory is decreasing. The market has no obvious driving force, and the spot price is weak. The improvement in housing transactions may stimulate market sentiment in the short - term. As the 07 contract approaches the delivery month, beware of bullish - sentiment disturbances [81][82].