白银：工业属性渐显，静待价值重估

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [83]. Core Insights - The supply of silver is gradually becoming rigid, with a downward trend in total supply from 2016 to 2024, showing a CAGR of -0.5%. The average cash cost of silver production is expected to rise, with a CAGR of 14.6% from 2018 to 2024 [2][9][21]. - Industrial demand for silver is expected to continue growing, with a projected increase of 3.6% in 2024. The photovoltaic sector is identified as the primary growth driver for industrial demand [2][34][38]. - The price of silver is anticipated to rise due to its industrial properties, with a gradual convergence of the gold-silver ratio expected as economic conditions improve [2][71][73]. Supply Summary - The global silver supply is projected to be approximately 31,574 tons in 2024, reflecting a 1.7% increase year-on-year. The supply structure indicates that mined silver accounts for 80.8% of total supply, with by-product mining contributing significantly [9][15][48]. - The average cash cost of silver production is expected to reach $7.64 per ounce in 2024, with total production costs also on the rise [21][25]. Demand Summary - Industrial demand for silver is projected to account for about 58.5% of total demand in 2024, with significant contributions from the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to see a 2.6% increase in demand [34][38]. - Jewelry demand is expected to remain stable, with a projected increase of 2.8% in 2024, particularly driven by demand from South Asia [42][46]. Price Summary - The silver price is expected to gradually increase, supported by the industrial demand and a favorable monetary environment. The current high gold-silver ratio is likely to trend downwards as silver prices rise [71][73]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated rise in silver prices and demand [80].