中辉有色观点-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to remain in high-level oscillations. Gold has high strategic allocation value in the long term, and silver's speculative sentiment and financial attributes have been ignited. Copper is advised to take profit on long positions and look for selling hedging opportunities at high levels, with a long - term optimistic outlook. Zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are expected to face pressure on rebounds, and zinc and nickel are recommended for short - selling opportunities at high levels. For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to short at high levels as the fundamental situation is hard to improve [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Conditions: Gold is in a high - level oscillation due to factors such as low US inflation, geopolitical escalation, and increased expectations of US interest rate cuts this year. Silver has seen a return of the gold - silver ratio, and its price has been supported by speculative sentiment and capital flow [2]. - Basic Logic: Tariff negotiations between China and the US have reached a framework agreement. The Chinese central bank continues to buy gold, and there are uncertainties in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. US inflation is low, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the global trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: For gold, focus on the 765 support level and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, short - term long positions can be continued, but control positions due to its high elasticity [4]. Copper - Market Conditions: Shanghai copper opened lower overnight and oscillated downward [6]. - Industry Logic: Overseas copper ore supply is tight. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased in May but is expected to decline in June. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and there is a risk of a soft squeeze. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: With US inflation lower than expected, long positions in copper should take profit. Speculators should temporarily wait and see, and industrial players should look for selling hedging opportunities at high levels. In the long term, copper is still optimistic. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79500], and for LME copper is [9600, 9800] USD/ton [7]. Zinc - Market Conditions: Zinc rose overnight but then fell back, oscillating in a narrow range around the integer level [8]. - Industry Logic: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Domestic zinc ore processing fees increased in June. Refined zinc production is expected to increase in June. Downstream demand is weakening, and the operating rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, wait and see. In the long term, take short - selling opportunities at high levels. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21800, 22400], and for LME zinc is [2600, 2700] USD/ton [9]. Aluminum - Market Conditions: Aluminum prices rebounded in the short term, while alumina prices were under pressure [10]. - Industry Logic: The overseas macro - trade environment has eased. The cost of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry decreased in May. Aluminum ingot inventories decreased, while aluminum rod inventories increased. The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises declined, and the terminal is entering the off - season. Overseas bauxite supply is stable, and domestic alumina production capacity has increased, with a slight inventory build - up [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - sell on short - term rebounds in Shanghai aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - Market Conditions: Nickel prices continued to decline, and stainless steel prices were under pressure [12]. - Industry Logic: The overseas macro - environment has eased. The shipment of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore has decreased. Domestic refined nickel production decreased slightly, but inventories are still high. Stainless steel consumption has entered the seasonal off - season, and inventory pressure has reappeared [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focusing on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 125000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Conditions: The main contract LC2507 continued to reduce positions and rebound, rising more than 1% [13]. - Industry Logic: Rumors of Tianqi taking delivery from the futures market have driven up prices, but the fundamentals have not changed much. Supply pressure remains high, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. The inventory of new energy vehicles has reached a three - year high, and only the energy storage sector provides some support. The production of lithium carbonate has recovered rapidly, and the expectation of inventory build - up is increasing [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short at high levels in the range of [60500 - 62500] [14].