光伏行业：静待供给侧优化，关注降银金属化新技术

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of industry self-discipline and technological innovation to optimize the supply side of the photovoltaic industry, with a focus on the reduction of silver usage in manufacturing processes [4][5][6] - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a recovery in Q1 2025 due to a surge in installations driven by policy changes, although the overall industry remains in a loss-making phase [4][6] - Key areas for supply-side optimization include the silicon material and battery cell segments, which are critical for improving efficiency and reducing costs [4][30] Investment Summary - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a total global installation of approximately 530 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of about 35.9%, with China's new installations projected at 277.57 GW, up 28.3% [14][15] - The report highlights that the first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in installations in China, with 104.93 GW added, representing a 74.6% year-on-year growth [14] - The report notes that the average cash cost of silicon materials is around 34,000 RMB per ton, with leading companies like Tongwei and Daqo Energy achieving lower costs [31][30] Technological Innovations - The report discusses the ongoing advancements in battery technologies, including the development of new techniques such as 0BB and bifacial cells, which are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [35][37] - The reduction of silver usage is identified as a key strategy for cost reduction, with alternatives like copper plating and copper paste being explored [5][37] - The report mentions that the new "stacked grid" technology is gaining traction, which eliminates traditional grid structures to improve efficiency and reduce material costs [46][37] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is still facing overcapacity, and the recovery of profit margins will depend on the successful elimination of outdated production capacity [6][54] - It recommends focusing on companies that are leading in technological advancements and cost reductions, such as Tongwei and Sunshine Power, as potential investment opportunities [6][57] - The report also highlights the growing demand in the energy storage sector, suggesting that companies involved in this area may benefit from increased market activity [57]