锂电行业2025年中期投资策略：板块景气度回暖，固态电池、钠电有望迎来规模效应

Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a recovery in overall prosperity, with solid-state batteries and sodium batteries expected to reach a scale application node by 2025 [1][4][19] - The report highlights the potential for profit recovery and valuation enhancement in the sector as new technologies continue to commercialize from 2025 to 2026 [4][19] Demand Side - The domestic market is seeing high growth driven by policies such as the vehicle replacement program, with cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reaching 4.299 million units from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46.3% [20][21] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic market reached 42.7%, up 10.4 percentage points year-on-year [20] - The commercial vehicle segment is particularly strong, with new energy commercial vehicle sales increasing by 66.9% year-on-year in the same period [21] Sector Performance - The battery segment is expected to see simultaneous revenue and profit growth, benefiting from new demand in low-altitude and robotics applications, as well as the commercialization of solid-state batteries [4][46] - The report notes that the lithium battery industry has emerged from a bottoming cycle, with various segments expected to see profit levels return [19][46] New Technologies and Industry Trends - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to accelerate in application due to rising demand in sectors like eVTOL and humanoid robots, with companies that have a technological lead likely to benefit [6][19] - Sodium batteries have crossed the threshold for large-scale cost efficiency, with significant demand growth in extreme environment storage and electric two-wheelers [6][19] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and CATL, which are expected to benefit from new customer orders and overseas expansion [4][5] - The materials segment is projected to see a return to profitability as industry concentration increases, particularly for ternary cathode materials [5][19] Profit Forecasts and Ratings - Guoxuan High-Tech is forecasted to have an EPS of 0.90 in 2025, with a strong recommendation for investment [8] - CATL is expected to maintain a significant market share, with its EPS projected to reach 14.83 in 2025 [8]