申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250612

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The improvement of Sino - US relations boosts the export prospects of US soybeans, providing overall support for US soybean futures prices. Domestically, the recent significant increase in the operation rate of domestic oil mills is expected to accelerate the inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Affected by the recent strength of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [2] - Oils: Night trading of soybean and palm oil showed a weak and volatile trend, while rapeseed oil closed higher. The Sino - US easing signal boosts the performance of soybean oil. The domestic soybean - related supply is gradually recovering with the increase in soybean arrivals, and soybean oil is expected to gradually accumulate inventory in the later period. The May Malaysian palm oil supply - demand data has a neutral impact on the market, and oils are expected to maintain a volatile trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7694, 7970, 9149, 3047, 2557, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 64, - 146, - 39, 16, 11, and 26, and price change rates of - 0.82%, - 1.80%, - 3.15%, 0.53%, 0.43%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - Spreads and Ratios: There were changes in spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc. For example, the current value of Y9 - 1 was 50, and the previous value was 60 [1] International Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3876 (ringgit/ton), 1050 (cents/bushel), 48 (cents/pound), and 294 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of - 44, - 8, 0, - 2, and price change rates of - 1.12%, - 0.76%, 0.57%, - 0.54% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - Prices: The current spot prices of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. had different price change rates. For example, the price change rate of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was - 1.00% [1] - Basis: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. were 266, 480 respectively [1] - Spreads: The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, etc. had changes compared with the previous values [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current values of import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 648, - 121, etc., showing changes compared with the previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. were 17,652, 340, 0 respectively, with some changes compared with the previous values [1] Industry Information - As of the week ending June 4, Argentine farmers sold 175.79 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season, with cumulative sales reaching 1963.45 million tons. Local oil mills purchased 128.1 million tons, and the export industry purchased 47.69 million tons [2] - From June 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.71%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1%, and the output decreased by 17.24% [2] - As of June 8, the US soybean sowing was 90% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 68% [2]