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宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250612
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-12 03:15

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The international oil price is running strongly in a range, and the cost - driven guidance for PX is limited. PX is expected to be in a destocking rhythm in the next few months. The focus of the current fundamentals is on the demand side, and prices are affected by marginal demand while following cost changes. [2] - The supply of PTA is gradually increasing, with inventory accumulation expected in July, which is negative for the PTA market. In the short - term, PTA prices will move in a range, and the fundamentals have no driving force after downstream production cuts. [2] - The polyester bottle - chip market has a light trading atmosphere, with sufficient supply and limited downstream purchasing intention. The recent start - up rate may decline slightly. [2] - Considering the current demand in the polyester industry chain is not optimistic, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run strongly, with all having a view score of 1. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Information - Upstream: On June 11, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $68.15 per barrel, up 4.88%; that of Brent crude oil was $69.77 per barrel, up 4.34%. The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $571.50 per ton, down 0.35%. [1] - PTA Price: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,620 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 4,606 yuan per ton, down 0.73%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,818 yuan per ton, down 0.82%. [1] - PX Price: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,528 yuan per ton, up 0.40%; the settlement price was 6,506 yuan per ton, down 0.70%. The PX CFR China price was $812 per ton. [1][2] - PR Price: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,802 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 5,788 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,890 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. [1] - Downstream Product Prices: Most CCFEI price indices of downstream polyester products remained stable or declined slightly on June 11, 2025. For example, the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6,495 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. [2] 2. Spread Information - The near - far month spread of PTA was 250 yuan per ton on June 11, 2025, an increase of 10 yuan per ton; the basis was 200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43 yuan per ton. [1] - The PXN spread of PX was $240.50 per ton, down 1.37%; the PX - MX spread was $109 per ton, down 7.49%; the basis was - 36 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26 yuan per ton. [1] - The basis of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 88 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton; in the South China market, it was 198 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton. [1] 3. Start - up Rate Information - On June 11, 2025, the start - up rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.07%, down 1.45 percentage points. The PTA factory load rate in the PTA industry chain was 83.56%, unchanged. [1] - The polyester factory load rate was 89.64%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 83.82%, unchanged; the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 69.09%, unchanged. [1] 4. Production and Sales Rate Information - On June 11, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 29%, down 28 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 75%, unchanged; the sales rate of polyester chips was 69%, down 42 percentage points. [1] 5. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20. A 0.8 - million - ton PX device in South China is under planned maintenance, and some device maintenance plans are postponed. [2] 6. Important News - Sino - US trade talks have a certain supporting effect on economic growth and oil demand, but the increase in gasoline and distillate inventories suppresses oil prices. The reduction of polyester short - fiber production affects the demand expectation of PX. [2] - The PTA device maintenance peak has passed, new production capacity is in trial operation, and the supply will increase in the month. The reduction of polyester short - fiber production affects market sentiment. [2] - The domestic weaving market in June continues to be weak, with some small US orders emerging. Terminal inventory pressure is high, and the loom start - up rate in June is expected to decline. [2]