Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price rose sharply due to the smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the significant increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70. The short - term focus is on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [1][2]. - The asphalt price is expected to be supported in the short - term due to strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [4][5][6]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [8][9][10]. - The natural gas price is expected to rise due to increasing demand in the US and Europe [11][12]. - The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [17][18]. - The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [20][21]. - The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [21][22][23]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [25][26]. - The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [27][28][29]. - The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [30][31]. - The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [32][33][34]. - The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [37][38][39]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [40][41][42]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [43][44]. - The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [44][45]. - The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [46][47][48]. - The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread [49][50]. - The natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [53][54][55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 contract settled at $68.15, up $3.17 per barrel (+4.88%); Brent2508 contract settled at $69.77, up $2.90 per barrel (+4.34%); SC main contract 2507 rose to 481.2 yuan/barrel, and night - session rose to 497.4 yuan/barrel [1]. - Related Information: Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the US planned to evacuate some embassy staff in Iraq due to increased security risks, which led to a more than 4% increase in oil prices [1][2]. - Logic Analysis: The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in oil prices. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70, with short - term focus on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wait - and - see [3]. 2. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 night - session closed at 3475 points (+0.40%); BU2512 night - session closed at 3824 points (+0.30%) [4]. - Related Information: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta and South China remained stable. The demand was weak, and the supply was expected to increase [4][5]. - Logic Analysis: In the short - term, the asphalt price is supported by strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [6]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread weakening; wait - and - see for options [7]. 3. LPG - Market Review: PG2507 night - session closed at 4088 (-0.41%); PG2508 night - session closed at 3980 (-0.55%) [7]. - Related Information: The propane market was stable with some declines, and the supply in South China decreased while that in Shandong increased [7]. - Logic Analysis: The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation with a weakening trend [8]. 4. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 contract night - session closed at 2943 (+0.89%); LU08 night - session closed at 3610 (+1.23%) [8]. - Related Information: Russia's offline primary refining capacity in July is expected to increase by 21%, and the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah increased [8][9]. - Logic Analysis: The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [9][10]. - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 spread when the price is low [8][11]. 5. Natural Gas - Logic Analysis: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased, but the demand was strong, and the price is expected to rise. In Europe, the natural gas price rose due to high - temperature weather and increasing cooling demand [11][12]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH when the price is low; oscillation for TTF [13]. 6. PX and PTA - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6528 (+0.40%), night - session closed at 6504 (-0.37%); TA509 main contract closed at 4620 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 4602 (-0.39%) [14][15]. - Related Information: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14][15][16]. - Logic Analysis: The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA for spreads; double - selling options [16][17]. 7. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4285 (+0.37%), night - session closed at 4269 (-0.37%) [17]. - Related Information: A synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to shut down for maintenance [18]. - Logic Analysis: The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [18][19]. 8. Short - Fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6414 (+0.88%), night - session closed at 6374 (-0.62%) [19]. - Related Information: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [19]. - Logic Analysis: The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 9. Polyester Bottle - Chip - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5802 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 5788 (-0.24%) [20]. - Related Information: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, with some decreases [21]. - Logic Analysis: The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [21]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 10. Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7349 (+0.04%), night - session closed at 7372 (+0.31%) [21]. - Related Information: The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased, while the inventory of styrene in East China main ports decreased [22]. - Logic Analysis: The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [23]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [22]. 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC spot market was in range - bound consolidation; caustic soda spot price in Shandong decreased [24][25]. - Related Information: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased [25]. - Logic Analysis: The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [26]. - Trading Strategy: For caustic soda, short on rebounds; for PVC, wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the long - term; caustic soda 7 - 9 and 8 - 10 reverse spreads after the spot weakens; wait - and - see for options [27]. 12. Plastic and PP - Market Review: The price of LLDPE in some regions increased slightly, and the price of PP in some regions increased [27][28]. - Related Information: The PE maintenance ratio decreased slightly, and the PP maintenance ratio increased [29]. - Logic Analysis: The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [29]. - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the medium - term; wait - and - see for spreads and options [29]. 13. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 998 yuan/ton (+0.30%), night - session closed at 985 yuan/ton (-1.30%) [29]. - Related Information: The domestic float glass market price was basically stable, and the trading volume was average [31]. - Logic Analysis: The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [31]. - Trading Strategy: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [32]. 14. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1202 yuan/ton (-0.5%), night - session closed at 1189 yuan (-1.1%) [32]. - Related Information: The domestic soda ash market was weak, with some enterprises' prices declining [34]. - Logic Analysis: The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [34]. - Trading Strategy: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [35]. 15. Methanol - Market Review: The methanol futures closed at 2288 (+0.35%) [36]. - Related Information: The methanol port inventory increased, and the international device operating rate increased [36]. - Logic Analysis: The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds, do not chase; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [37]. 16. Urea - Market Review: The urea futures closed at 1667 (-0.66%) [37]. - Related Information: The daily output of urea increased, and the inventory of urea production enterprises increased [39]. - Logic Analysis: The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [39]. - Trading Strategy: Weak trend, do not chase short; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options on rebounds [40]. 17. Log - Market Review: The log futures main contract closed at 765 yuan/cubic meter, down 6 yuan/cubic meter [41]. - Related Information: The log spot market was stable, and the sea freight of imported coniferous logs decreased [40][41]. - Logic Analysis: The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [41][42]. - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see; consider 9 - 11 reverse spreads; wait - and - see for options [43]. 18. Double - Offset Paper - Market Review: The double - offset paper market was stable with some declines [43]. - Related Information: The supply and demand of the double - offset paper market changed little, and the social demand was still weak [43]. - Logic Analysis: The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [44]. - No specific trading strategy provided. 19. Corrugated Paper - Market Review: The price of corrugated paper and box - board paper decreased slightly [44]. - Related Information: The market sentiment was weak, and the raw material cost increased [44][45]. - Logic Analysis: The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [45]. - No specific trading strategy provided. 20. Pulp - Market Review: The pulp futures were weakly running [46]. - Related Information: A new pulp product was launched by Stora Enso [47]. - Logic Analysis: The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [48]. - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for the SP main 07 contract; wait - and - see for spreads [48]. 21. Butadiene Rubber and Natural Rubber - Market Review: The BR main 08 contract closed at 11045, unchanged; the RU main 09 contract closed at 13815 (-0.54%); the NR main 08 contract closed at 12050 (-0.54%) [49][52]. - Related Information: The US tire imports increased in the first four months of 2025 [50][53]. - Logic Analysis: The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread; the natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [50][54]. - Trading Strategy: Wait - and - see for the BR main 08 contract; consider BR2508 - NR2508 and BR2509 - RU2509 spreads; hold long positions for RU and NR main contracts; wait - and - see for options [5
银河期货原油期货早报-20250612
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-12 03:09