光伏行业2025年中期策略：光伏行业：静待供给侧优化，关注降银金属化新技术

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic industry is expected to benefit from supply-side optimization driven by industry self-discipline and technological innovation. The first quarter of 2025 saw a performance recovery due to a rush in installations, but the entire industry remains in a loss phase, with capacity clearing still ongoing. Key areas for supply-side optimization include silicon materials and battery cells, which are crucial for the industry's recovery [4][30] - The reduction of silver usage in photovoltaic technology is a significant cost-saving direction. New technologies such as copper plating and copper paste are being explored to replace expensive silver, while process improvements aim to reduce silver paste usage [5][37] - The report highlights the importance of technological iteration in battery cells, which are essential for maintaining competitiveness in the photovoltaic sector. The ongoing development of new technologies is expected to lead to a gradual clearing of outdated production capacity [35][56] Summary by Sections 1. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The global photovoltaic installation growth rate is slowing, with an expected 530 GW of new installations in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 35.9%. In China, new installations are projected to reach 277.57 GW, a 28.3% increase year-on-year, driven by policy-induced rush installations [14][15] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in domestic installations, with 104.93 GW added, marking a 74.6% year-on-year growth. However, the overall industry is still facing overcapacity issues [4][14] 2. Key Areas for Supply-Side Optimization - The silicon material segment is highlighted as a core area for supply-side optimization due to its complex production process and high start-stop costs. Major players in this segment are more likely to reach production cut agreements during challenging times [30][31] - The battery cell segment is undergoing rapid technological advancements, with new techniques being introduced to enhance efficiency and reduce costs. This segment is expected to see a gradual clearing of outdated capacity as leading companies continue to invest in upgrades [35][56] 3. Cost Reduction Strategies - The report emphasizes the ongoing push for silver reduction in photovoltaic technology, with copper-based alternatives being explored. The cost structure of battery cells indicates that silver paste accounts for 27.3% of battery costs, making it a target for reduction efforts [37][40] - New technologies such as the 0BB and multi-busbar (MBB) techniques are being developed to minimize silver usage while improving efficiency. The report notes that these innovations could lead to significant cost savings and increased demand for auxiliary materials [5][46] 4. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is currently in a phase of overcapacity, with the need for production capacity clearing still present. The focus should be on segments with rapid technological iteration, such as battery cells and silicon materials, which are expected to see faster capacity clearing [54][56] - The report recommends monitoring companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, such as 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power Supply) and 德业股份 (Deye Technology) [6][57]