黑色建材日报：市场情绪摇摆，矿价小幅反弹-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: The strategy is to maintain a "sideways" stance. This includes a neutral view on single - sided trades, with no recommendations for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options trades [2]. - Iron Ore: The strategy is "sideways with a downward bias" for single - sided trades, and no suggestions for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options trades [4]. - Coking Coal and Coke: For coking coal, the strategy is "sideways"; for coke, it's "sideways with a downward bias". There are no recommendations for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options trades [6]. - Steam Coal: No investment strategy is provided [7]. 2. Core Views - Steel: The overall steel market is in a state of continuous inventory reduction. With low raw material prices, steel mills have decent profits. As the off - season approaches, the production and apparent demand of building materials are gradually declining, and inventory is slightly decreasing, which supports prices. Plates maintain a pattern of strong supply and demand, and good inventory reduction performance supports plate prices. Due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market, steel exports are resilient, and overall steel prices remain stable. Attention should be paid to hot metal production and the implementation of supply - side policies [1]. - Iron Ore: Currently, iron ore supply continues to increase, while demand slightly decreases. Hot metal production remains at a relatively high level over the years, and inventory is slightly decreasing, with total inventory at a medium level. In the long run, the iron ore market shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand. Be cautious of price rebounds due to unexpectedly strong off - season demand, and continuously monitor hot metal production and iron ore inventory changes during the off - season [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market sentiment for coking coal and coke is cautious, with prices moving sideways. For coking coal, factors such as safety inspections and policy adjustments have increased the expectation of supply contraction, but there are still pressures from high inventory and weakening marginal demand. For coke, after three rounds of price cuts in the spot market and considering the consumption off - season, inventory is relatively high, and the overall supply is still loose. Attention should be paid to hot metal production and coke supply changes [5][6]. - Steam Coal: The supply in the production areas has contracted, and short - term coal prices are moving sideways. Frequent environmental and safety inspections have affected coal washing plants, and some coal mines have been shut down for rectification. Chemical industries maintain rigid demand, but small and medium - sized traders have low purchasing enthusiasm. In the port market, demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, the possibility of large - scale thermal power procurement is small. In the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 2,991 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,108 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the futures market was dull, and the spot market transactions were average, with 104,000 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Steel is in a continuous inventory reduction state. Low raw material prices lead to good profits for steel mills. As the off - season approaches, building material production and demand decline, and inventory decreases slightly, supporting prices. Plates have strong supply and demand, and good inventory reduction supports prices. Low domestic prices make steel exports resilient [1]. - Strategy: Single - sided trades are expected to move sideways, with no recommendations for other types of trades [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: As of yesterday's close, the iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 707 yuan/ton, up 1.00%. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports rose slightly. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and steel mills mainly replenished inventory as needed. The total iron ore transactions at major ports nationwide were 787,000 tons, a 17.07% decrease from the previous day; the total forward - looking spot transactions were 1.415 million tons (11 transactions), a 14.96% decrease from the previous day (mine transactions were 820,000 tons) [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Currently, iron ore supply is increasing, demand is slightly decreasing, hot metal production is relatively high, inventory is slightly decreasing, and total inventory is at a medium level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose. Be cautious of price rebounds during the off - season [3]. - Strategy: Single - sided trades are expected to move sideways with a downward bias, with no recommendations for other types of trades [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures moved sideways. For coke, traders mainly reduced inventory, and steel mills continued to control raw material procurement. Recently, some enterprises' supply has decreased due to environmental inspections and inventory pressure. For coking coal, frequent safety inspections in the main production areas during the safety month have reduced supply. Coking enterprises mainly purchase raw coal as needed, and the market is mostly in a wait - and - see mode. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port for imported Mongolian coal is at a low level [5]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: For coking coal, supply contraction expectations are rising, but high inventory and weakening demand pressures remain. For coke, after price cuts and in the off - season, inventory is relatively high, and supply is loose [6]. - Strategy: Coking coal is expected to move sideways, while coke is expected to move sideways with a downward bias. No recommendations for other types of trades [6]. Steam Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, coal prices are moving sideways. Frequent environmental and safety inspections have affected coal washing plants, and some coal mines have been shut down. Chemical industries maintain rigid demand, but small and medium - sized traders have low purchasing enthusiasm. In the port market, demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, the possibility of large - scale thermal power procurement is small. The price difference between domestic and imported low - calorie coal has widened [7]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: In the short - term, coal price support from demand is insufficient, and with the rainy season, the substitution effect of hydropower is strengthening. In the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7]. - Strategy: No investment strategy is provided [7].