Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different agricultural products: - Oscillation: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn and starch, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp [4][5][6][7][8][9][11] - Oscillation on the strong side: Corn and starch [5] - Oscillation on the weak side: Livestock, cotton, sugar, log [6][9][11][12] 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein Meal: With the increase in soybean premium and the rise in the futures market leading the spot market, the basis weakens. It is expected that before the weather speculation, US soybeans will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Under the pressure of increasing domestic supply, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the futures market, and the basis will continue to be weak. The futures market of soybean meal will move within a range following US soybeans [1][2][4]. - Oils and Fats: The market sentiment has weakened. In the medium - term, driven by trade policies, overseas biodiesel policies, and the supply of oilseeds, the oils and fats market is expected to maintain a range - bound operation. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical support [4]. - Corn and Starch: The spot price remains strong, while the futures market rises first and then falls. In the medium - term, it is expected to operate on the strong side with oscillations. The continuous tightening of imported grains further confirms the expectation of inventory reduction, but continuous sharp increases are unlikely, and attention should be paid to potential negative factors such as import auctions [4][5]. - Livestock: In the short - term, the spot price of livestock is weak due to the off - season demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure will continue to increase, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations. The near - term market is under pressure, while the far - term market may improve due to expectations of inventory clearance and capacity adjustment [6]. - Natural Rubber: The fundamentals are still weak, and the impact of commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment is significant. The downward trend may continue. Although the futures market may temporarily stabilize and rebound slightly with the improvement of macro - sentiment, attention should be paid to the performance after the futures market reaches the pressure level [6][7]. - Synthetic Rubber: The trading of raw materials is weak, and the rise of the futures market is blocked. Attention should be paid to the support level of the futures market after the price of butadiene stabilizes. The futures market of synthetic rubber is expected to temporarily stabilize but still face pressure from above [8][9]. - Cotton: In the short - term, it will oscillate within the range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, it will be weak with oscillations. Although the current low inventory may support the near - term contracts, the expected increase in new crop production will put pressure on the price in the long - term [9]. - Sugar: In the long - term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, the sugar price has a downward driving force; in the short - term, the weakening of the external market leads to a decline in valuation, and the sugar price is weak with oscillations [11]. - Paper Pulp: The market operates flatly and is expected to oscillate. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, but the correction of the valuation of Russian needles may support the futures market [11]. - Log: The spot price is stable, and the futures market corrects. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak, and the volatility increases [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Outlook - Oils and Fats: The market sentiment is weakening. Due to the optimistic sentiment of Sino - US trade negotiations and the good growth of US soybeans, the US soybean and soybean oil futures markets show different trends. Domestically, the cost of imported South American soybeans has increased, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is expected to rise. For palm oil, the production and export in May in Malaysia were higher than expected, and the inventory was slightly lower than expected. The export in early June is expected to increase, and the short - term production pressure may decrease marginally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory is slowly decreasing but still at a high level, and the import volume may gradually decrease in the future [4]. - Protein Meal: Internationally, the sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going smoothly, but there is a trend of increasing drought in the quarterly outlook. The premium of South American soybeans is rising, and the average daily export volume in the first week of June decreased year - on - year. It is expected that the price of US soybeans will oscillate within a range. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal continues to rise slightly, but the transaction volume of spot and basis has decreased significantly. The supply pressure restricts the increase of the spot price. The profit of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of soybean meal is expected to rise seasonally, putting pressure on the basis. The downstream inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the downstream is becoming more cautious after replenishing at low levels. The inventory of breeding sows has increased year - on - year, indicating that the rigid demand for soybean meal consumption may increase steadily [1][4]. - Corn and Starch: Affected by the start of the minimum purchase price policy for wheat in Henan, the market sentiment is bullish. The continuous tightening of imported grains confirms the expectation of inventory reduction. However, the arrival of new wheat has reduced the demand for corn, and the futures market has fallen due to profit - taking by long - positions. In the medium - term, it is expected to operate on the strong side with oscillations [4][5]. - Livestock: After the recent sharp decline in pig prices, the state will conduct a central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage, which boosts market sentiment. However, the inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals are still loose. In the short - term, the slaughter weight of livestock decreases, and the supply of large pigs increases. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to April 2025 continued to increase, and it is expected that the supply of livestock will increase in the third quarter. In the long - term, the production capacity is still at a high level, and the motivation for capacity reduction is insufficient. The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations [6]. - Natural Rubber: The macro - sentiment is strong, and the rubber price rebounds but is blocked near the pressure level. The implementation of zero - tariff policies for African products may have an impact on the market, but it needs further observation. The supply side is affected by the rainy season in Thailand, and the raw material price has rebounded recently. The demand side shows weak recovery in tire production, and the inventory problem has not been significantly improved. The downward trend may continue [6][7]. - Synthetic Rubber: The trading of butadiene is weak, which drags down the futures market. Although it rebounded slightly in the afternoon, the overall decline was small. The fundamentals have not changed much. The purchase of butadiene is expected to provide short - term support, and the futures market is expected to temporarily stabilize but still face pressure from above [8][9]. - Cotton: Driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment and the expectation of tight supply, the cotton price rebounds. The planting area of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase, and the production may increase if there is no extreme weather. The demand side has weakened recently, and the inventory is decreasing faster than before, which may support the price in the short - term. In the long - term, the expected increase in new crop production will put pressure on the price [9]. - Sugar: The market is trading in advance the expectation of a loose global sugar market supply in the 25/26 crushing season. Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to have good production. Although the production data in the first half of May in Brazil decreased year - on - year, the overall optimistic expectation remains unchanged. In China, the production of the 24/25 crushing season has ended, with a high sales rate and low inventory, but there is pressure from subsequent arrivals. The sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term and weak with oscillations in the short - term [11]. - Paper Pulp: The futures market moves horizontally, and the near - term contracts are weak. The supply - demand situation shows that the warehouse receipts are decreasing, the supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and there are news of strikes and price - holding by pulp mills. The previous rebound of the futures market was mainly due to the correction of the valuation of Russian needles, and now it is approaching the end of the correction. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [11]. - Log: As the delivery of the LG2507 contract approaches, the game between long and short positions intensifies, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak. Fundamentally, the supply of logs is accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure [12]. Variety Data Monitoring The document lists the data monitoring sections for various products such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, livestock, rubber, cotton, sugar, paper pulp, and log, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text.
大豆贴水上涨，豆粕盘面领涨
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-12 03:50