新能源及有色金属日报-20250612

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [5] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [5] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Long the SHFE aluminum calendar spread [5] Core Viewpoints - The price of electrolytic aluminum is difficult to fall due to low social inventory and no obvious inventory accumulation trend, but the sustainability of consumption needs attention, and factors such as social inventory changes, Sino-US negotiations, and overseas squeezing risks should be monitored [4] - The alumina spot price has declined, the basis has narrowed, the supply is expected to increase, and the cost is expected to be stable, with an overall supply surplus expectation [4] - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the price is firm [4] Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On June 11, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,400 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,350 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was -80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Futures - On June 11, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,005 yuan/ton, closed at 20,250 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton or 1.25% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 198,643 lots, an increase of 49,434 lots, and an open interest of 194,628 lots, an increase of 10,323 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 477,000 tons [2] - As of June 11, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 357,600 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot - On June 11, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,270 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,285 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [3] Alumina Futures - On June 11, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,887 yuan/ton, closed at 2,895 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 327,631 lots, a decrease of 26,554 lots, and an open interest of 293,094 lots, a decrease of 1,758 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy - The price of scrap aluminum was stable at 19,400 yuan/ton, and the AD2511 - AL2511 contract spread was -535 yuan/ton [4] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply side: Rio Tinto's Tomago faces a shutdown crisis due to energy prices [4] - Demand side: Consumption remains strong, LME and domestic spot premiums are rising, apparent consumption growth rate is still positive year-on-year, and inventory is expected to decline slightly in June [4] - Risk factors: Concerns about the sustainability of consumption, the approaching traditional domestic consumption off - season, and potential marginal decline in overseas demand [4] Alumina - Supply side: Good industry profits, increased resumption of production enthusiasm, signs of bottoming out and recovery in production and inventory [4] - Cost side: Disturbance in Guinea's ore supply, short - term support for ore prices, but limited price increase space, and no expected alumina production cut due to ore shortage [4] Aluminum Alloy - Supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and prices are firm [4]