综合晨报-20250612

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international oil prices increased overnight, and the crude oil market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with attention to the actual development of geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2]. - Gold prices rose slightly due to the fall of the US dollar, but the increase was restricted by the positive market sentiment. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, and silver has opened up upward space [3]. - Copper prices declined overnight but recovered due to the expected Fed rate - cut and the fall of the US dollar index. Short - sellers should consider changing positions and setting stop - losses [4]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile, and short positions can be considered on rallies as the demand may weaken seasonally [5][8]. - Alumina futures are expected to be weak, and short positions can be considered on rallies [6]. - Zinc prices are expected to be weak, and short positions are recommended on rallies [7]. - Nickel prices rebounded, and short - selling opportunities are awaited [9]. - Tin prices fell overnight, and attention should be paid to spot price adjustments [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, and light - position participation in the rebound is recommended [11]. - Industrial silicon futures rose with reduced positions, and caution is advised when chasing highs [12]. - Polysilicon futures are expected to be volatile in the short term [13]. - Steel prices fell overnight, and the demand outlook is pessimistic, with attention to terminal demand and policies [14]. - Coke and coking coal prices are volatile, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff developments [15][16]. - Manganese silicon prices are expected to be weak, and short positions can be tried on rallies [17]. - Ferrosilicon prices are mainly driven by coking coal, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [18]. - The container shipping index (European line) is uncertain, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [19]. - High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil crack spreads are expected to weaken [20]. - Asphalt prices are expected to rise with oil prices, but the crack spread is under pressure [21]. - Liquefied petroleum gas prices are expected to be in low - level oscillations [22]. - Urea prices are expected to be weak [23]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [24]. - Styrene prices are expected to be supported by cost due to rising oil prices [25]. - Polypropylene and polyethylene prices are affected by cost and supply - demand factors, with limited upward momentum [26]. - PVC prices may be in low - level oscillations, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [27]. - PX valuation may be supported, while PTA prices may rise in the short term due to cost but face a weakening supply - demand situation [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices are in bottom - level oscillations with limited downward space [29]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices may face inventory pressure, and attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts [30]. - Glass prices fell overnight, and cautious operation is recommended [31]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak, and short positions are recommended at high levels [32]. - Soybean and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to weather changes [33]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to weather and supply - demand factors [34]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are expected to be supported in the short term [35]. - Domestic soybean prices are in horizontal adjustments, and attention should be paid to weather factors [36]. - Corn futures are expected to be volatile in the short term [37]. - Live hog prices are expected to be under short - term downward pressure and have long - term support [38]. - Egg prices have not reached the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to various factors [39]. - Cotton prices are recommended for temporary observation, with attention to trade talks and inventory [40]. - Sugar prices are expected to be in oscillations [41]. - Apple prices are in oscillations, and attention should be paid to new - season yield estimates [42]. - Wood prices are weak, and temporary observation is recommended [43]. - Pulp prices are recommended for temporary observation, with attention to long - position opportunities on significant dips [44]. - Stock index futures are expected to be in a slightly volatile repair pattern [45]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a bullish and volatile trend [46]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to spread trading opportunities [47]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight, international oil prices soared. Brent's August contract rose 6.28% to exceed $70/barrel. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations and geopolitical risks in the Middle East led to a sharp increase in oil prices. The unexpected decline in EIA crude oil inventories last week also supported the strong trend of crude oil [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and its crack spread is expected to weaken. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and its crack spread is expected to be under pressure [20]. - Asphalt: Overnight oil price increase is expected to drive up asphalt prices. However, the processing of diluted asphalt has a large theoretical loss, and the increase in asphalt production is limited. The terminal demand is expected to improve, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue, but the crack spread is under pressure [21]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Domestic refinery prices are weak. Although the chemical demand is increasing, the growth space is limited. The market is under pressure in the off - season, but the rise in oil prices provides some support [22]. Metals - Precious Metals: Gold prices rose slightly due to the fall of the US dollar, but the increase was restricted by positive market sentiment. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, and silver has opened up upward space [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: Copper prices fell overnight but recovered due to the expected Fed rate - cut and the fall of the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to spot price adjustments and short - seller operations [4]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices are volatile. The aluminum market is in the process of de - stocking, but the demand may weaken seasonally. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 20,300 yuan [5][8]. - Alumina: Alumina futures are weak, and short positions can be considered on rallies due to supply surplus [6]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are weak, and short positions are recommended on rallies. The supply of zinc ore is loosening, but the TC is low. The output of domestic smelters is expected to increase [7]. - Nickel: Nickel prices rebounded, and short - selling opportunities are awaited. The loading of nickel mines in the Philippines was delayed, and the NPI price was stable [9]. - Tin: Tin prices fell overnight, and attention should be paid to spot price adjustments and short - seller operations [10]. - Ferrous Metals - Steel: Steel prices fell overnight. The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the negative feedback expectation is fermenting. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and policies [14]. - Coke & Coking Coal: Coke and coking coal prices are volatile. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the prices rebounded. Attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff developments [15][16]. - Manganese Silicon: Manganese silicon prices are expected to be weak, and short positions can be tried on rallies. The manganese ore inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [17]. - Ferrosilicon: Ferrosilicon prices are mainly driven by coking coal. The supply is decreasing, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [18]. Chemicals - Urea: Urea prices are weak. The agricultural demand is partially started but scattered, and the export is less than expected [23]. - Methanol: Methanol prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is expected to increase [24]. - Styrene: Rising oil prices are expected to support styrene prices. The supply and demand are expected to increase slightly [25]. - Polypropylene & Plastic: Rising oil prices support the cost, but the supply of polypropylene is increasing, and the demand is weak for both polypropylene and polyethylene [26]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC prices may be in low - level oscillations due to cost increase and supply - demand imbalance. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [27]. - PX & PTA: PX valuation may be supported, while PTA prices may rise in the short term due to cost but face a weakening supply - demand situation [28]. - Ethylene Glycol: Ethylene glycol prices are in bottom - level oscillations. The supply is increasing, but the downward space is limited [29]. - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices may face inventory pressure, and attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts [30]. Agricultural Products - Grains & Oilseeds - Soybean & Soybean Meal: Sino - US trade talks brought positive sentiment. The supply of soybeans is increasing, but the cost of imported soybeans is rising. The soybean meal inventory is rising, and the market is expected to be volatile [33]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: Sino - US trade negotiations are expected to drive up the price of rapeseed seeds, and domestic rapeseed products are expected to be supported in the short term [35]. - Corn: Sino - US trade talks reached a framework consensus. The supply of corn in Shandong increased slightly. The start of the wheat minimum purchase price plan in Henan affected the corn market. Corn futures are expected to be volatile in the short term [37]. - Livestock & Poultry - Pig: Pig futures are in a narrow - range fluctuation. The short - term spot price is under downward pressure, and the long - term price has support [38]. - Egg: Egg futures showed different trends. The spot price generally decreased. The egg price has not reached the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to various factors [39]. - Cash Crops - Cotton: US cotton prices fell, and the planting and growth conditions are normal. Sino - US trade talks are positive. Domestic cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is weak. Temporary observation is recommended [40]. - Sugar: International sugar supply is expected to be bearish, and domestic sugar inventory pressure is light. Sugar prices are expected to be in oscillations [41]. - Apple: Apple prices are in oscillations. The market demand is decreasing, and attention should be paid to new - season yield estimates [42]. - Wood: Wood prices are weak. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is relatively good in the off - season. Temporary observation is recommended [43]. - Pulp: Pulp prices are low. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the supply is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to long - position opportunities on significant dips [44]. Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The price of the Shanghai - Gdansk test route by Maersk decreased slightly. There are doubts about the sustainability of the freight rate. Attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [19]. - Stock Index: A - share markets oscillated and rose, and stock index futures are expected to be in a slightly volatile repair pattern [45]. - Treasury Bond: Bond markets are strong, and treasury bond futures are expected to be in a bullish and volatile trend [46]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to spread trading opportunities [47].