Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Tariff policies have not pushed up consumer - side inflation, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Coupled with continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly position for long positions on pullbacks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 774.54 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.72 yuan compared to the previous day and - 6.45 yuan compared to last week. Trading volume decreased by 11,438.00, and inventory remained at 17,817.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 8,882.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 15.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 429.00 yuan compared to last week. Trading volume decreased by 368,450.00 [1]. - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 3,376.90 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.90 dollars compared to the previous day. Trading volume increased by 43,521.00, and inventory decreased by 398,530.69 (in troy ounces) [1]. - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 36.36 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.30 dollars compared to the previous day. Trading volume increased by 11,275.00 [1]. - London Gold Spot: The price was 3,334.75 dollars/ounce, with a change of 5.05 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - London Silver Spot: The price was 36.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.95 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Price Spread and Basis - Shanghai Gold: The spread between near - month and far - month contracts was - 2.30, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 2.24 [1]. - Shanghai Silver: The spread between near - month and far - month contracts was 2.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 3.00 [1]. - COMEX Gold: The spread between near - month and far - month contracts was 2.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 7.10 [1]. - COMEX Silver: The spread between near - month and far - month contracts was 0.12, and the basis (spot - futures) was 0.27 [1]. 3.3 Gold - to - Silver Price Ratio - The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 87.21, with a change of - 5.15 compared to the previous value. The ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 90.80, with a change of - 5.38 compared to the previous value [1]. 3.4 Other Commodity and Financial Market Data - Crude Oil: INE JAD was - 1.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent was 70.78 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude was 68.30 dollars/barrel [1]. - Copper: Shanghai copper futures were 79,290.00 yuan/ton, and LME copper spot was 9,647.00 dollars/ton [1]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,402.3159, the S&P 500 was 6,022.2400, the UK FTSE 100 was 77.33, etc. [1]. 3.5 Important News - Tariff Policy: The US Federal Appellate Court extended the Trump tariffs, with a key hearing in late July. The EU may postpone trade negotiations until after July. US May CPI data showed that inflation did not rise significantly [1]. - Geopolitical Situation: Trump's "confidence in the Iran nuclear negotiations has weakened", and Iran warned of retaliation if the negotiations fail [1]. - Central Bank Policies: The Fed may cut interest rates in September or December. The European Central Bank may cut interest rates once more by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates twice by the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates around July [1].
贵金属日评:关税仍未显著推升美国消费通胀,伊朗核问题牵动中东地缘风险-20250612
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-12 03:50