贵属策略报：美国通胀不及预期，?价短线冲

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The lower-than-expected inflation data in the US in May boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, causing the gold price to break through 3360 in the short term. The market now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of 77 bps in the next year and 48 bps by December [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions continue to support the safe-haven demand for gold. Geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, as well as the "Liberation Day" tariff issue and Sino-US trade negotiations, have pushed some safe-haven funds into gold [2]. - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [32, 35] [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - In May, the US CPI annual rate was 2.4% (expected 2.5%, previous value 2.3%); the monthly rate was 0.1% (expected 0.2%, previous value 0.2%). The core CPI annual rate was 2.8% (expected 2.9%, previous value 2.8%); the monthly rate was 0.1% (expected 0.3%, previous value 0.2%) [1]. - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that coercive trade policies cannot solve financial imbalances, and all parties need to weigh policy adjustments to resolve tensions [1]. - Sino-US economic and trade consultations in London reached a trade framework agreement, aiming to resolve trade disputes over rare earths and magnets [1][2]. Price Logic - The lower-than-expected inflation data in the US in May increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, which was the main reason for the short - term rise in the gold price [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions continued to support the safe - haven demand for gold, with some safe - haven funds flowing into gold on Wednesday [2]. Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [32, 35] [2].