中信期货晨报：市场情绪回暖，商品整体上涨为主-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's equal - tariff hikes and high uncertainty on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. US economic data in May was weak, but the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and hourly wage growth reduced market bets on Fed rate cuts. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies maintain stability, and in the short term, they may mainly utilize existing resources. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to remain resilient, but pressure on export and price data may gradually appear. Attention should be paid to China's "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the Politburo meeting in July [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to gradually rise. Bonds are still worth allocating at low prices after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations. Focus on low - valuation and policy - driven logics [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: In April, the US trade deficit was $61.62 billion. The year - on - year import was 3.4%, and the month - on - month was - 16.3%. Factory orders declined more than expected. The June "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in economic activity, and the economic outlook was described as "slightly pessimistic and uncertain". However, May's non - farm payrolls and hourly wage growth were better than expected [6]. - Domestic: Policies maintain stability. Manufacturing profits are resilient, but export and price data may face pressure. Pay attention to "rush re - export", "rush export" and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset: Overseas, more hedging and more volatility; in China, a structural market. Allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and bonds are worth allocating at low prices. Stocks and commodities are range - bound, focusing on low - valuation and policy - driven logics [6]. 3.2 Viewpoints Compendium 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal policies implement established plans [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks are not fully released, and the market is in a state of shock. Pay attention to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and be cautious with covered strategies. Pay attention to option market liquidity, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/silver: The progress of Sino - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Pay attention to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Pay attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Sino - US talks have started, and the market is waiting and observing. Pay attention to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and molten iron production, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price fluctuates. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. - Coke: Demand support weakens, and there is still an expectation of price decline. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and the market is in a state of shock and decline [7]. - Coking coal: Supply and demand are still loose, and upstream sales are weak. Pay attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and the market is in a state of shock and decline [7]. - Other products: Such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, are all in a state of shock, with different factors to pay attention to [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are high. Pay attention to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and domestic demand recovery, and the market is in a state of shock [7]. - Other non - ferrous metals: Such as aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, etc., are in a state of shock, with different influencing factors [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and pay attention to macro and geopolitical disturbances. The market is in a state of shock [9]. - Other chemical products: Such as LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc., have different short - term trends and factors to pay attention to, mainly in a state of shock, with some in a state of decline or shock and rise [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Rubber: Driven by the strength of commodities, rubber prices rise. Pay attention to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, and the market is in a state of shock [9]. - Other agricultural products: Such as cotton, sugar, and corn, have different short - term trends and factors to pay attention to, mainly in a state of shock [9].