中原期货晨会纪要-20250612

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market had a positive performance on June 11, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.52% to 3402.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.83%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.21%. The market turnover was 1.29 trillion yuan. However, short - term upward potential may be limited, and investors are advised to take profits when the market rises and shift from high - priced to low - priced stocks, focusing on previously oversold technology stocks [7][19]. - In the commodity market, different varieties showed different trends. For example, in the energy and chemical sector, urea was under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand; in the industrial metal sector, copper and aluminum prices rebounded but the upward momentum was questionable. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. Both sides reached a principle agreement on the measure framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns [6]. - President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the Ministerial Meeting of Coordinators for the Implementation of the Outcomes of the Forum on China - Africa Cooperation, emphasizing China's willingness to strengthen cooperation with Africa in various fields and promote high - quality development of China - Africa cooperation [6]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to CK Hutchison's sale of overseas port assets, expressing China's opposition to economic coercion and supporting Panama's sovereignty and independent decision - making [7]. - In May, China's automobile market continued to grow. Automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 11.6% and 11.2%. New energy vehicle sales reached 1.307 million in a single month, a year - on - year increase of 36.9%, accounting for 48.7% of the overall market. From January to May, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 5.608 million, a year - on - year increase of 44%. In May, automobile exports were 551,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the cumulative exports in the first five months were 2.49 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [7]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is generally stable but weak. The futures market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, waiting for new drivers [11]. - Oils: The total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased. The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil showed different trends. Due to the progress of China - US negotiations, the oil market lacks positive support, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - Sugar: The futures price continued to be weak, and the fundamentals showed a pattern of "weak overseas and stable domestic". It is recommended to hold existing short positions but beware of basis repair risks [11]. - Corn: The futures market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the impact of wheat prices in North China on the substitution margin of corn [11]. - Hogs: The spot price increased, the supply was relatively stable, and the consumption improved. The futures contract rebounded weakly [13]. - Eggs: The spot price was stable but weak. The futures market had technical support at the bottom, but the medium - term capacity pressure continued to be released [13]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The market price continued to be weak, with high supply and weak demand. The inventory of urea enterprises continued to accumulate significantly. It is expected that the futures price will continue to be under pressure in the short term [13]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price was under pressure due to factors such as reduced maintenance scale and new production capacity. The 2509 contract is considered from a short - side perspective [13]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market oscillated, and there was a possibility of a fourth round of price cuts for coke next week. The double - coking market oscillated under short - term macro - sentiment support [13][15]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The spot prices of copper and aluminum increased, and the inventory of copper increased slightly while that of aluminum decreased. The prices rebounded, but the upward momentum was questionable, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. - Alumina: The supply recovered while the demand remained stable, the inventory increased, the spot trading became lighter, and the 2509 contract may continue to be under pressure [17]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the spot market improved. The steel prices were supported by the positive news from the China - US talks, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. The steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with resistance levels for rebar at 3000 - 3050 and for hot - rolled coil at 3150 [17]. - Ferroalloys: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were weak. The ferrosilicon market had short - term rebounds, but the supply pressure remained. The ferromanganese market lacked driving forces, and the medium - term view was bearish [17][19]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price rebounded, and the spot market also improved. The fundamentals showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to short at high prices in the range of 61000 - 62500 yuan, beingware of the risk of short - covering if the 63000 - yuan pressure level is broken [19]. 2.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: Although the recent tariff friction has eased, the short - term upward potential of the stock index may be limited. It is recommended to take profits when the market rises, shift from high - priced to low - priced stocks, and pay attention to previously oversold technology stocks. Avoid chasing high prices and beware of risks in crowded sectors [19][21]. - Options: Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddle strategies to bet on increased volatility after the volatility decreases [21].