永安期货早盘提示-20250612

Economic Indicators - The US core inflation rate for May has been below expectations for the fourth consecutive month, indicating that businesses are largely absorbing higher tariff costs without passing them on to consumers[8] - The US May tariff revenue reached a record high of $23 billion, a year-on-year increase of $17 billion, representing a 270% growth[13] - The US budget deficit for May was $316 billion, a 17% decrease compared to the previous year[13] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% to 3402.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.83% and the ChiNext Index gained 1.21%[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.84% at 24366.94 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.09% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.12%[1] Trade Relations - President Trump announced that China will "take the lead" in supplying rare earths and magnets as part of a framework agreement reached during US-China negotiations[8] - The framework agreement includes maintaining current tariff levels, which are lower than before Trump's presidency, and allowing Chinese students to enroll in US universities[8] Monetary Policy - Following the inflation data, the market is pricing in an over 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September[8] - Trump has called for a 100 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, arguing it would significantly reduce interest payments on maturing debt[8]