FICC日报：马士基6月最后一周试舱价格开出，关注本周是否有7月份涨-20250612

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping industry is experiencing price fluctuations and supply - demand imbalances. In June, the US - bound freight rates soared due to supply - demand mismatch, but the US - West rates may have peaked. The European - bound freight rates in June also showed an upward trend, with an expected price increase in July and August. The 06 contract of the container shipping index is supported by the expected delivery settlement price, and there is still a price increase expectation for the European - bound freight in August [3][5]. - The container shipping market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand relationship, and seasonal patterns. Geopolitical tensions may impact shipping routes, and the supply - demand relationship is adjusted by carriers' capacity deployment. The traditional peak season in August may lead to price increases [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online Quotes: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price quotes for routes from Shanghai to Rotterdam, GDNASK, etc. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam 25 - week price is 1700/2840, and HPL's 7 - month first - half shipping schedule quote is 2635/4435 [1]. - Price Increases: Some shipping companies announced price increases in the second half of June. MSC's second - half - of - June price increase letter shows a price of 2340/3900, up from 1920/3200 in the first half of June [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply - Demand Impact - Geopolitical Factor: Israel's defense minister warned the Yemeni Houthi rebels, which may lead to potential maritime and air blockades [3]. - Supply - Demand Mismatch in US Routes: In April and May, carriers withdrew capacity from the trans - Pacific east - bound routes. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the end of tariff exemptions on Chinese goods on August 11, the demand on Sino - US routes increased rapidly, causing a sharp rise in freight rates. Currently, carriers are restoring capacity, and the capacity on Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. However, the US - West freight rates may have peaked [3]. 3.3 European Route Capacity - The capacity pressure on European routes decreased in June. The average weekly capacity of Shanghai - European routes in the remaining three weeks of June is about 280,600 TEU, and the average weekly capacity in July is 279,600 TEU. There are also some blank sailings in June and July [4]. 3.4 Contract and Price Expectations - The 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of the price increase letter. As the delivery deadline approaches, the 06 contract will gradually return to "real - world" trading. The average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU, and the expected delivery settlement price of the 06 contract is about 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [5]. - There is an expectation of price increases in August as it is the traditional peak season, and the currently - counted capacity in July is relatively low. It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for July and August at the beginning of June and July. The 2025 European - bound freight rate peak time is unclear, and the 8 - month contract has a fierce game between expectation and reality. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [5][6]. 3.5 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 7, 2025, 120 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 940,000 TEU. Among them, 36 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 544,000 TEU, and 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [7]. 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates. - Arbitrage: Go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [7].