铅锌日评：沪铅下方支撑较强，沪锌反弹空间有限-20250612

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, although downstream is in the off - season with high inventory accumulation risk, due to the continuous shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and high uncertainty in production, lead prices may rebound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of cost support and macro - uncertainty factors [1]. - For zinc, despite the recent improvement in macro - sentiment and better spot trading after the price decline, considering the supply - side suppression and inventory build - up expectations, the rebound space of zinc prices is limited, and a short - position allocation strategy is still recommended [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the futures main contract closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous day; the basis was - 220 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 21,724 lots, down 40.01%; the open interest was 43,989 lots, up 0.05% [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closed at 1,993.5 dollars/ton, up 0.30%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.45, down 0.51% [1]. News and Production - An east - China secondary lead smelter plans to resume production at the end of June, and raw material procurement may resume one week before the furnace starts [1]. - A south - west primary lead smelter plans a one - week maintenance starting in late June, with an expected daily lead ingot output reduction of about 300 tons, but the monthly output is expected to be unaffected [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase; secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to rising waste battery prices, limited raw materials, and high costs; demand is weak in the off - season, providing limited support for lead prices [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.63%; the futures main contract closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, up 1.35%; the basis was 90 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 170,227 lots, up 7.31%; the open interest was 125,779 lots, down 6.88% [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closed at 2,651 dollars/ton, down 0.28%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.35, up 1.64% [1]. News and Resource - Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary's silver mine resource reserve verification report was approved, with silver reserves increasing from 859.8 tons to 11,114 tons, and associated metals' resources also increasing [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and the raw material shortage situation has improved, with cost support weakening and production increasing; demand is in the off - season, and considering environmental inspections, the start - up rate is expected to decline this week [1].