燃料油日报：埃及燃料油进口持续攀升-20250612

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.07% at 2,912 yuan/ton while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.17% at 3,563 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices showed a volatile and strong trend after the OPEC meeting. Short - term fundamentals are okay with some market support, but there is pressure on the balance sheet to turn into surplus in the medium term, so there is resistance above after continuous rebounds [1] - The overall market contradiction of fuel oil is limited. High - sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads have continuously declined recently. With summer approaching, power generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is rising, and Egypt's fuel oil imports continue to grow. However, high cracking spreads have suppressed refinery demand, and the market will face pressure after power generation demand falls [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure with low bonded port inventories. But after the domestic refinery maintenance season ends, domestic production is expected to rise, and the volume of arbitrage cargoes from the West in June is also expected to increase. In the medium term, it still faces the contradiction of being replaced in the ship - fuel demand share [2] 3) Strategy Summary - High - sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Cross - variety: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting FU cracking spreads (FU - SC or FU - Brent) on rallies. Short - term support is strong, so try to short at high levels [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]