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银河期货每日早盘观察-20250612
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-12 05:12

Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D department, covering multiple agricultural commodities including soybeans/meals, sugar, oils, corn/corn starch, hogs, peanuts, eggs, apples, and cotton - cotton yarn. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Soybeans/Meals: Internationally, the soybean market has a high - yield pattern with export pressure. Domestically, there is an increase in arrival and start - up pressure, and future inventory accumulation is expected [2][3][5]. - Sugar: The global supply increase weighs on the raw sugar price. In China, due to factors like lagging summer stockpiling demand and weak raw sugar, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend [7][11]. - Oils: Affected by geopolitical factors, the oil market is volatile. The MPOB report shows certain impacts, and different oils have different supply - demand situations [16][20]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The US corn has good sowing progress, and the domestic corn supply is relatively short with a strong spot price. The futures are expected to be strongly volatile [25][27]. - Hogs: Although the slaughter pressure has eased, the high inventory and large - weight pig supply will continue to put pressure on prices [33]. - Peanuts: The spot trading volume is low, and the 10 - contract peanut is short - term strong but has limited rebound space due to expected area increase [35][37]. - Eggs: The near - month contract may be weak in the off - season, while the far - month contract may rise if the supply improves [43][47]. - Apples: Low inventory supports the early - maturing apple price, and the 10 - month futures contract is expected to be slightly strong in June [51][53][55]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The short - term trend is range - bound, and the medium - long - term may be weak due to global economic pressure, but the US attitude can change the market [57][62]. Summary by Commodity Soybeans/Meals - Market Data: CBOT soybean index fell 0.19% to 1040.75 cents/bu, and CBOT meal index fell 0.5% to 300.8 dollars/short ton. As of June 6, the oil mill's soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week and 24.7% year - on - year, and the meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week and decreased by 57% year - on - year [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term short - selling operation, M11 - 1 positive spread, and selling call options [6]. Sugar - Market Data: ICE US sugar fell 0.36% to 16.42 cents/lb. As of May 2025, Guangxi's sugar sales rate reached 71.85%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 25.35 tons year - on - year [7][8]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term weakness, wait - and - see for spreads, and use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [12][13][14]. Oils - Market Data: CBOT soybean oil changed by 0.63% to 48.04 cents/lb, and BMD palm oil changed by 0.05% to 3841 ringgit/ton. From June 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.24% [16][17]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term oscillation, wait - and - see for spreads and options [20][21][22]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market Data: CBOT corn futures fell 1.2%. As of June 6, 2025, northern ports' corn inventory decreased by 25.2 tons week - on - week, and the starch inventory decreased by 3.13% week - on - week [25][26]. - Trading Strategy: The US 07 corn oscillates at the bottom; wait - and - see for 07 corn. Do spread operations for corn and starch, and consider selling covered calls for those with spot [28][30][31]. Hogs - Market Data: Hog prices generally declined. As of June 11, the national average pork price decreased by 0.1% [33]. - Trading Strategy: Light - position short - selling, LH79 reverse spread, and selling strangle strategy [34][35]. Peanuts - Market Data: Peanut prices vary by region. Peanut oil prices are strong, while peanut meal sales are slow. As of June 5, 2025, peanut inventory decreased by 6520 tons week - on - week [35][36]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell 10 - contract peanuts at high prices, wait - and - see for spreads, and sell pk510 - C - 8800 options [39][40][41]. Eggs - Market Data: Egg prices declined. In May 2025, the laying - hen inventory was 13.34 billion, and the egg sales volume increased by 1.2% week - on - week as of June 6 [43][44][46]. - Trading Strategy: Build long positions in 8/9 - month contracts in mid - to late June, short near - month and long far - month spreads, and wait - and - see for options [48]. Apples - Market Data: As of May 21, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 24.25 tons week - on - week. In 2025, the cumulative apple export from January to March increased by 9.5% year - on - year, and the import increased by 123.9% year - on - year [51]. - Trading Strategy: Build long positions in AP10 at low prices, wait - and - see for spreads and options [60]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market Data: ICE US cotton fell 0.89% to 65.38 cents/lb. As of June 7, 2025, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 1.4%. As of June 8, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 76% [57][58]. - Trading Strategy: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly strong, wait - and - see for spreads and options [63][64][65].