新能源及有色金属日报：大批俄铜从LME被运走，伦敦地区货源紧张问题延续-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report Currently, downstream consumption is declining due to holiday effects, and the short - term operating rates of copper products and wire and cable may still face pressure. However, the supply at the mine end is still highly disrupted. The continuously low TC price and the strong performance of silver drive up the copper price. Therefore, for copper, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On June 11, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 79,150 yuan/ton and closed at 79,290 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,740 yuan/ton and closed at 78,570 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the afternoon close of the previous day [1] Spot Situation Near the delivery date, the monthly spread did not improve significantly. Sellers quoted prices above par and were reluctant to sell at a discount. The price difference between brands of flat - water copper converged. The procurement and sales sentiment improved. In the latter half of the week, the supply of flat - water copper was not expected to be loose. Downstream buyers pressured prices due to high copper prices, while sellers were reluctant to sell below par. Some Russian copper was expected to arrive at the end of the week, and downstream buyers were likely to purchase at low prices [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical Aspects: US May CPI data were all lower than expected, with core CPI only rising 0.1%. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points. Iran's defense minister said Iran would attack US military bases in the region if the nuclear negotiations failed. The possibility of the sixth - round Iran - US nuclear negotiations over the weekend was decreasing. The EU hoped to extend the trade negotiation time, and the Trump administration was willing to extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period if there was "sincerity" in the negotiations [3] - Mine End: An American mining project in Nevada attracted the attention of the US Export - Import Bank, which intended to provide $896 million to support a company in building a copper - molybdenum mine. In April 2025, Codelco's copper production increased by 20.5% year - on - year to 114,600 tons; Escondida's copper production increased by 31% year - on - year to 128,400 tons; Collahuasi's copper production decreased by 13.5% year - on - year to 36,600 tons [4] - Smelting and Import: In May, LME's Russian copper inventory decreased by 27,350 tons, including 14,800 tons of "Class 2" Russian copper. The overall LME copper market inventory dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years [5] - Consumption: From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 74.87%, 1.03 percentage points lower than the previous week and 2.27 percentage points lower than market expectations. The copper cable industry's operating rate was 76.08%, down 2.59 percentage points week - on - week. Some enterprises' new orders decreased by about 10% month - on - month. From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% [6] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons to 119,450 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 373 tons to 33,373 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,500 tons, a change of 700 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - Copper: It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton