日度策略参考-20250612

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic factors have limited driving force for stock indices, with weak fundamentals and a policy vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the possibility of an upward breakthrough in stock indices is low without significant positive news. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress the upward space [1]. - The market is affected by macro - economic conditions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and supply - demand relationships in various industries. Different commodities show different trends such as oscillation, upward or downward movement [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stock indices: Limited upward breakthrough possibility without positive news, be cautious about Sino - US tariff signals, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks suppress the upward space, with short - term oscillation and a solid long - term upward logic [1]. Metals - Copper: Sino - US talks boost risk appetite, but weak downstream demand limits the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand and fluctuating macro - sentiment may lead to oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price is stable, futures price is weak, and increasing production in the smelting end pressures the futures price [1]. - Zinc: Monday's inventory increase pressures the price, and the subsequent downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability on Thursday [1]. - Nickel: Short - term oscillation following the macro - situation, with long - term pressure from first - grade nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term weak oscillation, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply shortage in the short term leads to high - level oscillation [1]. - Manganese silicon: Short - term oscillation with heavy warehouse receipt pressure and supply - demand imbalance [1]. - Silicon iron: Oscillation due to weak supply and demand [1]. Building Materials and Energy - Glass: Supply - demand imbalance leads to a weakening price trend [1]. - Soda ash: Supply surplus concerns and weak terminal demand put pressure on the price [1]. - Coking coal: Can continue to short - sell, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse receipt cost of 780 - 800 [1]. - Coke: Falls in line with coking coal as the cost of coal for furnace use decreases [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: May have a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data in the MPOB report [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Weak fundamentals and the game with other oils, be vigilant against a rebound [1]. - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weakly oscillating, affected by trade negotiations, weather, and consumption seasons [1]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the price may be affected by the sugar - alcohol ratio and crude oil prices [1]. - Corn: Tight supply - demand balance expected, with short - term oscillation [1]. - Soybean meal: Short - term oscillation is strong, but the increase of MO9 is expected to be limited [1]. Chemicals - PTA: The tight situation is alleviating, and short - fiber costs are closely related [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Continues to decline due to profit expansion and inventory reduction [1]. - Styrene: Bullish due to increased device load and concentrated inventory [1]. - PP: Oscillation is strong due to maintenance and rigid demand [1]. - PVC: Oscillation is weak due to increased supply pressure and seasonal factors [1]. - LPG: Supply increase, high port inventory, and weak demand suppress the price, and there are short - selling opportunities [1]. Others - Shipping: For container shipping on the European line, consider short - selling and long - buying strategies according to different contract periods [1]. - Fuel oil: Oscillation, affected by geopolitical situations and consumption seasons [1]. - Asphalt: Oscillation, with cost drag and slow demand recovery [1]. - Natural rubber: Oscillation, with factors such as narrowing price difference, falling raw material prices, and reduced inventory [1]. - BR rubber: Expected to decline due to weak cost support and high inventory [1].