碳酸锂日评：国内碳酸锂6月供给预期偏松，国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加-20250612

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in June 2025 is expected to be loose, and the social inventory has increased month - on - month. The price of lithium carbonate may first strengthen and then weaken. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 53,000 - 58,000 and the pressure level around 63,000 - 68,000 [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - Prices: On June 11, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 61,700 yuan/ton, 61,680 yuan/ton, 61,740 yuan/ton, and 61,740 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract on June 11 was 236,197 lots, an increase of 31,417 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 178,235 lots, a decrease of 16,496 lots [1] - Inventory: The inventory on June 11 was 32,837 tons, a decrease of 110 tons compared to the previous day [1] - Spreads and Basis: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 770 yuan/ton [1] Lithium and Related Product Spot Prices - Lithium Ore: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) on June 11 was 630 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day. The average prices of different grades of lithium mica also showed varying degrees of increase [1] - Lithium Compounds: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 60,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic) decreased by 300 yuan/ton [1] - Other Products: The prices of products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also had different trends, with some prices decreasing slightly [1] Company News - Lingling Precision: Its subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua revised the original "Business Cooperation Agreement" with CATL, increasing the production capacity in Jiangxi to 160,000 tons/year and the production and sales in Sichuan Phase III to 200,000 tons/year. CATL promised to purchase no less than 30% of Jiangxi Shenghua's committed production capacity annually, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the lithium iron phosphate cathode material business [2] - Xintai Co., Ltd.: Its 10,000 - ton lithium salt project in Indonesia has been in trial production since 2025, and the certification of some core customers is in the final stage, with mass production expected in the third quarter. The company has a business layout in metal gallium for solid - state batteries [2] Supply and Demand Situation - Lithium Carbonate Supply: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in January 2026, increasing the total production capacity to 2.01 million tons/year. The production and import of domestic lithium ore in June may change, and some production lines are under maintenance or capacity conversion. The production profit of some lithium carbonate production methods is negative [3] - Lithium Hydroxide Supply: The production and inventory of lithium hydroxide in June may change, with the production profit of some production methods being negative, and the export volume may increase [3] - Lithium Iron Phosphate Supply: The production and inventory of lithium iron phosphate in June may increase, and many projects are under construction or planned to be put into production [3] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 53,000 - 58,000 and the pressure level around 63,000 - 68,000 due to the complex supply - demand situation and price trends [4]