华宝期货晨报煤焦：库存压力不减，盘面反弹表现乏力-20250612

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term market sentiment has warmed up, which provides some support for coal prices. However, fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coking coal and coke have declined slightly at high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high, so the price rebound lacks momentum [1] Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the overall price of coking coal and coke has shown a bottom - rebound trend, mainly driven by factors such as large previous price drops, short - covering, valuation repair, and improved foreign trade situation. But the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price rebound is still under pressure [1] Spot Market - On the spot side, the coke price at the origin has been stable after the third round of price cuts since mid - May, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton in these three rounds, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts. Coking coal spot has also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [1] Supply - With the recent rebound in coal prices, there have been continuous news about supply contraction. Domestic coal mine production has continued a slight downward trend, but there has been no large - scale production suspension or reduction, so it cannot change the upstream inventory accumulation situation. This week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons, and the inventory level is still at an absolute high [1] Demand - The demand for coking coal and coke has continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate is relatively slow. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills dropped to 2.418 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 605,000 tons. The overall profitability rate of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in the start - up rate, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines [1]