关注能源、化工上游价格变动
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-06-12 05:32
- Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production industry has seen an increase in new energy vehicle production and sales, with exports also growing significantly. The service industry should pay attention to the promotion of elderly - care service - related programs [1]. - Upstream, international oil prices have risen slightly, while urea and soda ash prices have declined. In the mid - stream, PX and pig product processing开工率 have increased. Downstream, first - and second - tier city property sales are at a near - three - year low, and domestic flight frequencies have decreased periodically [2][3][4]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview 3.1.1. Production Industry - From January to May, China's automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.7% and 10.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million vehicles, growing by 45.2% and 44% year - on - year, accounting for 44% of total new car sales. Automobile exports were 2.49 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle exports at 855,000 vehicles, a 64.6% year - on - year increase [1]. 3.1.2. Service Industry - The International Organization for Standardization has released an international standard on the inclusive digital economy for an aging society led by China, providing specific suggestions for high - frequency digital economy scenarios for the elderly [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have risen slightly. - Chemical: Urea and soda ash prices have declined [2]. 3.2.2. Mid - stream - Chemical: PX开工率 has recovered. - Agriculture: Pig product processing开工率 has increased [3]. 3.2.3. Downstream - Real Estate: First - and second - tier city property sales are the same as last year and at a near - three - year low. - Service: Domestic flight frequencies have decreased periodically [4]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking (as of 6/11) | Industry | Last Year | One Quarter Ago | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 63.38 | 88.71 | 77.76 | 59.48 | 59.28 | 0.70 | | Mining | 35.48 | 25.94 | 47.91 | 38.57 | 39.39 | 9.40 | | Chemical | 67.32 | 72.87 | 63.09 | 21.15 | 50.99 | 0.10 | | Steel | 42.16 | 65.09 |... | 45.94 | 46.91 | 10.50 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 44.71 | 65.43 | 58.77 | 51.36 | 51.00 | 12.00 | | Electronics | 61.94 | 86.94 | 77.65 | 58.50 | 58.89 | 8.40 | | Automobile | 63.19 | 71.17 | 51.29 | 40.74 | 41.64 | 0.70 | | Household Appliances | 42.03 | 60.23 | 53.02 | 45.87 | 46.68 | 12.50 | | Food and Beverage | 42.30 | 54.60 | 45.51 | 35.32 | 36.25 | 2.20 | | Textile and Apparel | 51.27 | 64.99 | 55.00 | 51.41 | 51.69 | 9.10 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 49.82 | 203.78 | 165.50 | 148.84 | 145.95 | 7.10 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 23.69 | 75.25 | 73.82 | 61.08 | 59.40 | 8.60 | |... | 26.29 | 41.31 | 33.99 | 26.24 | 27.04 | 9.80 | | Transportation | 32.99 | 45.47 | 38.14 | 30.12 | 31.18 | 6.10 | | Real Estate | 221.47 | 158.34 | 125.70 | 101.21 | 103.67 | 6.40 | | Commercial Trade | 46.51 | 59.70 | 51.36 | 42.04 | 41.84 | 4.00 | | Leisure Services | 80.78 | 112.28 | 127.15 | 121.37 | 122.09 | 98.10 | | Bank | 27.73 | 36.23 | 19.75 | 19.17 | 18.01 | 4.40 | | Non - bank Finance | 28.71 | 42.60 | 35.76 | 29.23 | 29.51 | 6.80 | | Comprehensive | 69.20 | 59.32 | 51.02 | 41.51 | 42.20 | 1.30 | | Building Materials | 35.82 | 55.75 | 47.38 | 37.31 | 38.25 | 8.10 | | Building Decoration | 43.77 | 66.60 | 56.84 | 59.22 | 60.30 | 28.40 | | Electrical Equipment | 53.06 | 93.59 | 83.42 | 79.80 | 79.15 | 41.80 | | Mechanical Equipment | 32.71 | 51.69 | 48.31 | 42.07 | 43.99 | 24.30 | | Computer | 69.67 | 76.76 | 62.98 | 48.56 | 46.46 | 0.00 | | Media | 227.40 | 53.06 | 46.41 | 38.66 | 39.69 | 1.00 | | Communication | 31.64 | 44.82 | 28.75 | 24.87 | 25.36 | 1.40 | [49] 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking (as of 6/10) | Industry | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 2308.6 | 0.50% | | | Spot price: Eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/10 | 5.8 | - 2.02% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 8630.0 | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 14623.0 | 0.44% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/10 | 20.3 | - 1.41% | | | Spot price: Copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 79293.3 | 1.03% | | | Spot price: Zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 22146.0 | - 2.50% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 20193.3 | 0.28% | | | Spot price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 123000.0 | - 0.52% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 16706.3 | 1.10% | | | Spot price: Rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 3090.2 | 1.29% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 746.1 | - 0.56% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 3267.5 | 0.23% | | | Spot price: Glass | Daily | Yuan/sq.m | 6/10 | 13.8 | - 2.82% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 13670.8 | 2.72% | | | China Plastics City price index | Daily | - | 6/10 | 824.4 | - 0.25% | | | Spot price: WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/10 | 65.3 | 4.43% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/10 | 67.0 | 3.73% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 3998.0 | - 2.01% | | | Coal price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 748.0 | - 0.53% | | | Spot price: PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 4880.5 | - 1.38% | | Chemical | Spot price: Polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 7346.7 | - 0.14% | | | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 1821.7 | - 3.92% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 1370.0 | - 4.20% | | | Cement price index: National | Daily | - | 6/10 | 140.9 | 0.84% | | Real Estate | Building materials comprehensive index | Daily | Points | 6/10 | 111.6 | 0.30% | | | Concrete price index: National index | Daily | Points | 6/10 | 99.1 | - 0.24% | [50]