沪铜日评：国内铜治炼厂6月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250612

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The relaxation of mutual tariffs between China and the US has led to export expectations, and there are fluctuations in the production of multiple overseas steel mills. However, due to the traditional off - season of consumption, the destocking of domestic electrolytic copper is difficult, which may cause adjustments in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to support and pressure levels [3]. Summary by Relevant Directory Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On June 11, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,290, with a volume of 64,136 lots, an increase of 410 compared to the previous day; the open interest was 209,523 lots, an increase of 838; the inventory was 33,373 tons, a decrease of 373 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,310, an increase of 35 [2]. - Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads: The Shanghai copper basis was 20, a decrease of 375; the spot premium or discount in different regions showed various changes; the spreads between different contract months also changed, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 10 [2]. - London Copper: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on June 11, 2025 was 9,647, a decrease of 78; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 119,450; the spreads between different contract periods also changed [2]. - COMEX Copper: The total inventory on June 11, 2025 was 4.8065 million tons, a decrease of 0.09 million tons compared to the previous day [2]. Industry Information - Upstream: In June 2025, the overall starting rate of Chinese anode copper enterprises is expected to increase by 1.57 percentage points to 54.56%. Some mines have production plans and issues, such as the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine may resume production in late June, and some mines need to be shut down for maintenance. The import volume of copper concentrates may increase, while the production and import volume of scrap copper may decrease [2][3]. - Downstream: The capacity utilization rate of some copper - related downstream industries may decline in June, such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper foil, etc., affected by factors such as the off - season of consumption and insufficient orders. However, the capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase [3]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the support level of 76,000 - 78,000 and the pressure level of 80,000 - 82,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level of 9,000 - 9,300 and the pressure level of 9,800 - 10,000 for London copper, and the support level of 4.5 - 4.5 and the pressure level of 5.0 - 5.5 for US copper [3].