黑色商品日报-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures price rose slightly yesterday. Spot prices also increased, with trading volume picking up. However, construction steel production continued to decline, inventory reduction slowed, and apparent demand continued to fall, showing signs of a seasonal slow - down in market demand. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism reached a principle agreement on the measure framework, which boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures price will remain in a low - level consolidation [1] - Iron Ore: The main contract price of iron ore futures rose yesterday. Port spot prices also increased. On the supply side, Australian shipments increased significantly, while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly, resulting in an overall increase in global iron ore shipments. On the demand side, the blast furnace operating rate increased, but molten iron output continued to decline. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports and steel mills continued to decline. With both bullish and bearish factors at play, the iron ore futures price is expected to show a volatile trend [1] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price fell yesterday. On the supply side, some mines in the production areas stopped production, and overall supply tightened slightly. In the face of the market's downward trend, downstream procurement was cautious, and most enterprises were still waiting and watching. On the demand side, after the third round of coke price cuts, coke enterprises' profits were squeezed, and the price of raw coal continued to fall, lacking cost support. The market sentiment was mostly pessimistic, and the procurement of raw coal was relatively cautious. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures price will fluctuate [1] - Coke: The coke futures price rose yesterday, while the spot price at the port remained stable. On the supply side, environmental protection inspection teams entered multiple northern provinces, and coking enterprises implemented certain production reduction measures. The price of coking coal, the raw material, continued to fall, and the overall operating load remained relatively high. On the demand side, during the traditional off - season, the molten iron output of steel mills is expected to decline further, and the rigid demand for coke is under continuous pressure. Steel mills maintain low - inventory operations and are cautious in purchasing raw materials. It is expected that the short - term coke futures price will fluctuate [1] - Silicon Manganese: On Wednesday, the silicon manganese futures price weakened in a volatile manner. The main factor affecting the price recently is the weakening cost support. Overseas miners' quotations for manganese ore in July decreased month - on - month, and the port manganese ore inventory continued to rise, with the price center of gravity moving down slightly. In terms of supply and demand, although the current weekly output of silicon manganese is still at a relatively low level in recent years, it has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks. The steel procurement is ongoing. Overall, there is insufficient upward momentum for the silicon manganese price in the near term, but with the price at an absolute low and no significant new negative factors, it is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation in the short term [1] - Silicon Iron: On Wednesday, the silicon iron futures price rose slightly. Recently, the number of silicon iron production enterprises reducing or suspending production has increased, which has supported the price to some extent. The steel procurement is still ongoing, but the support and driving force are relatively limited. The inventory of 60 silicon iron sample enterprises across the country decreased week - on - week but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. Overall, the driving force is limited, and it is expected that the silicon iron price will fluctuate in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2991 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions of 0.1 million hands. The spot price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan rose 20 yuan/ton to 2920 yuan/ton, and the price of Zhongtian rebar in the Hangzhou market rose 30 yuan/ton to 3090 yuan/ton. The national construction steel trading volume was 104,600 tons. This week, the national construction steel production decreased by 81,600 tons to 4.1377 million tons, social inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 5.5224 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 129,700 tons to 3.1318 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 65,600 tons to 2.3252 million tons [1] - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures closed at 707 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.2% from the previous trading day, with trading volume of 350,000 lots and an increase in positions of 8,000 lots. The port spot prices increased, with PB powder at Rizhao Port rising 5 yuan/ton to 724 yuan/ton, Carajas fines rising 4 yuan/ton to 819 yuan/ton, and Super Special fines rising 4 yuan/ton to 619 yuan/ton [1] - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 783.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions of 10,814 lots. The ex - factory price of main coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi decreased by 27 yuan to 1073 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market fluctuated, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rising 7 yuan to 718 yuan/ton and the price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal falling 4 yuan to 810 yuan/ton, and market trading was light [1] - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1356 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.52% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions of 1227 lots. The spot price of coke at the port was stable, with the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port remaining at 1180 yuan/ton [1] - Silicon Manganese: On Wednesday, the silicon manganese futures price closed at 5486 yuan/ton, down 1.22% month - on - month, with an increase in positions of 12,713 lots to 448,900 lots. The market price of 6517 silicon manganese was 5380 - 5540 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Silicon Iron: On Wednesday, the silicon iron futures price closed at 5184 yuan/ton, up 0.35% month - on - month, with a decrease in positions of 1061 lots to 217,000 lots. The spot price of 72 - grade silicon iron in major production areas was about 5000 - 5100 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread, Basis, and Spot Price: The report provides the latest contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron, along with their month - on - month changes [4] - Profit and Spread: It also presents data on the latest profits (such as rebar's futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and spreads (such as hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc.) for these commodities and their month - on - month changes [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: The report includes line charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][11][14] - Main Contract Basis: There are line charts depicting the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [17][18][21][23] - Inter - period Contract Spread: Line charts are provided to show the spreads of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron [25][27][28][32][33][35][37] - Inter - variety Contract Spread: The report contains line charts presenting the spreads of inter - variety contracts such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, rebar to coke ratio, coke to iron ore ratio, coking coal to coke ratio, and silicon manganese to silicon iron spread [40][42][44] - Rebar Profit: Line charts show the futures profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [45][49] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Currently the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of the black research department. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry's spot trading, research, and consulting. He has won many industry awards [51] - Zhang Xiaojin: Currently the director of the resource product research department of the Everbright Futures Research Institute. He is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has won many awards in the industry [51] - Liu Xi: A master of science, currently a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51] - Zhang Chunjie: Currently a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has worked in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, passed the CFA Level II exam, and is good at thinking from the perspectives of investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [52]