光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250612

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 11, 2025, the 2507 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.68% to 61,680 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 60,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 58,900 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 60,900 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 66,050 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 110 tons to 32,837 tons [3]. - Lithium ore prices show signs of stopping decline. On the supply side, the weekly output increased month-on-month, and the supply growth rate in June is significant. On the demand side, the preliminary production schedules of various companies show little increase. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased again, with a slight decrease in the downstream and an increase in the upstream and intermediate links. Considering that currently, there are no new production cuts at the mine end, and from the domestic production schedule, the oversupply situation will expand further in June. Also, the price performance of lithium ore is relatively lagging. If the price of lithium salt strengthens rapidly, the motivation for production and hedging will reappear, putting further pressure on prices. Currently, the lithium ore inventory has been digested to a certain extent [3]. - Market rumors led to a rebound in futures prices. The current price is basically at the bottom of the stage, with intensified long-short games. Prices may be disturbed by funds, but there is no inflection point in the actual fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 61,680 yuan/ton, up 920 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 61,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 630 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5%-2.0%) was 685 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0%-2.5%) was 1,210 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the prices of lithium aluminum phosphate (Li2O: 6%-7%) and lithium aluminum phosphate (Li2O: 7%-8%) remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery-grade/domestic) was 60,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero-grade/domestic) was 58,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [5]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 60,900 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 66,050 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of industrial-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 54,900 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 8.2 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price remained unchanged at 52,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 450 yuan to 400 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery-grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide increased by 280 yuan to -2,011.7 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor & Cathode Materials: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials decreased slightly, while the prices of some remained unchanged. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 40 yuan to 30,445 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage) increased by 30 yuan to 28,950 yuan/ton; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased by 40 yuan to 26,650 yuan/ton [5]. - Batteries: The prices of most battery products remained unchanged, while the price of cobalt - acid lithium battery cells decreased by 0.02 yuan/Ah to 5.53 yuan/Ah [5]. 2. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5%-2.0%), lithium mica (2.0%-2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate (6%-7%, 7%-8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts show the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - Price Spreads: Charts show the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - Precursor & Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25][28]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt - acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from October 2024 to June 2025 [36][37][38]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿,外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 to 2025 [40][41]