从日本国债审视日本市场和宏观环境

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The direction of the Japanese government bond market is marketization, with high interest rates posing risks and supply - demand balance being crucial [62]. - Japan's economic growth is expected to be 0.5 - 0.7%, driven by corporate investment, domestic consumption, and overseas markets [62]. - The inflation expectation is 2.5% this year and 1% in the long - term [62]. - Japan's fiscal policy is burdened by history, high welfare, and fiscal constraints [62]. - Japan's monetary policy aims at normalization and maintaining financial system stability [62]. - Regarding cross - border capital flows, there is a trade - off between short - term hedging and arbitrage tools and long - term investment value [62]. - Short - term attention should be paid to the BOJ例会, the Ministry of Finance's June meeting, and the July Senate election [62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Japan's Government Bond Scale and Characteristics - The report may analyze Japan's government debt - to - GDP ratio and the classification of government bond holders in 2024 [6][9]. 3.2 History and Reasons for the Massive Government Debt - Japan's central government tax revenue and fiscal revenue - expenditure budget have changed over time, with the fiscal revenue budget increasing from 66.2 trillion yen in 1990 to 107.6 trillion yen in 2022 and expected to reach 115 trillion yen in 2025 [16][21][22]. - Population aging leads to an increase in future social security expenditures, which is one of the reasons for the massive government debt [23][25]. 3.3 Japan's Fiscal and Government Bonds - Analyze Japan's fiscal revenue - expenditure balance, fiscal deficit - to - GDP ratio, and compare it with other countries [28][29][30]. - Consider the interest rate and the interest burden of government bonds, where the interest rate refers to the weighted average of the current total government bond interest rate [31][32]. 3.4 Changes in Government Bond Yields and Their Impact on the Market 3.4.1 Reasons for the Rise in Government Bond Yields - Inflation expectation: Japan is moving out of deflation with a target inflation rate of 2% [38]. - Monetary policy: Ending negative interest rates and YCC, gradually raising interest rates to 0.5% in January 2025, and gradually reducing government bond purchase scale quarterly [38][45]. - Fiscal policy: There is public opinion about tax cuts [38]. - Changes in market participants and increased volatility, including the central bank, life insurance companies, domestic banks, and overseas investors [38]. 3.4.2 Impact of Rising Government Bond Yields - Fiscal policy: It requires fiscal self - discipline and the role of bond guardians [47]. - Monetary policy: There is pressure to raise interest rates and a need to adjust the QT rhythm [47]. - Cross - border capital flow: Japanese funds may flow back, and there are impacts on overseas funds and short - term funds (such as hedging transactions and yen carry trades) [47]. 3.5 Cross - border Capital - Japan's overseas assets in 2024 include direct investment, securities investment, financial derivatives, other investments, and foreign exchange reserves. The net overseas assets are 533,050 trillion yen, with an increase of 60,861 trillion yen compared to the previous year - end [53][54]. - The yen carry trade uses the long - term ultra - low interest rate and high liquidity of the yen to borrow yen and invest in high - yield assets for profit. After the unwind in August 2024 and April 2025, the current scale may be small [60].