高盛：贵金属分析_铂金_价格将回落至区间内

Investment Rating - The report suggests that platinum prices are likely to fall back within the historical range of $800-$1,150 per troy ounce, indicating a cautious outlook on sustained price increases [1][10][12]. Core Insights - The recent surge in platinum prices to $1,280 per troy ounce was primarily driven by speculative and ETF demand, making a sustained breakout unlikely due to price sensitivity in key markets, particularly China [6][12]. - Chinese demand for platinum is highly price-sensitive, with significant buying occurring at lower prices, which has contributed to the metal's range-bound trading over the past decade [4][18]. - The automotive sector is facing downside pressure on platinum demand due to China's rapid transition to electric vehicles (EVs), which reduces the long-term need for platinum in autocatalysts [26][32]. - Global platinum supply is expected to remain stable to moderately higher, primarily driven by South African production, which constitutes about 70% of global output [2][33]. Summary by Sections Price Dynamics - Platinum prices have historically fluctuated between $800 and $1,150 per troy ounce, with a recent spike attributed to speculative trading and ETF investments [1][10][12]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) estimates a supply deficit of approximately 1 million troy ounces, or about 20% of annual mining production, for the current year [13]. Demand Factors - Chinese demand, which accounts for around 60% of new annual platinum production, is significantly influenced by price levels, leading to reduced purchases when prices rise [4][18]. - The shift towards EVs in China is expected to diminish long-term demand for platinum in the automotive sector, while increasing scrap availability from retired internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles [26][32]. Supply Outlook - The report anticipates stable to moderately higher global platinum supply unless South African power constraints re-emerge, with guidance from major miners indicating a moderate increase in production [2][33]. - South Africa's platinum production is largely a byproduct of other metals, and the profitability of mining operations is influenced by the overall PGM basket price rather than solely the platinum price [45][49].