高盛：中国外卖专家会议要点_聚焦不断演变的竞争格局及对单店的影响

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Meituan, JD, Alibaba, Guming, Mixue, and Yum China, with specific target prices set for each company [18][24][25][26][27][36]. Core Insights - The food delivery industry in China has seen a significant increase in daily order volumes, reaching approximately 120 million, driven by competitive subsidies and evolving consumer behavior [2][20]. - Meituan is expected to maintain its leadership in the food delivery market, with a projected market share of 60-65%, while JD and Taobao Instant Shopping/Ele.me are estimated to hold 10-15% and 25-28% market shares, respectively [11][18]. - The competition among food delivery platforms has intensified, particularly between Meituan, JD, and Taobao Instant Shopping, leading to aggressive subsidy strategies and increased order volumes [2][8][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The food delivery market has expanded due to platform subsidies, resulting in an increase of around 30 million incremental daily orders, with 15 million of these being beverage orders, which are less likely to sustain post-subsidy normalization [12][20]. - The effective take rate for merchants in the industry has decreased to the low 20% range, down from mid-20% levels, indicating increased pressure on margins due to competition [10]. Company Strategies - Meituan has shifted to more aggressive strategies to defend its market share, including targeted subsidies and differentiated offerings [8]. - JD has ramped up its order volumes to 25 million daily, leveraging its delivery capabilities and expanding its on-demand retail offerings [24]. - Taobao Instant Shopping has initiated aggressive subsidy campaigns to enhance its market position, benefiting from traffic support from its main apps [10]. Long-term Projections - The expert forecasts that JD's loss per order will peak in Q2 2025, with gradual improvements expected by Q4 2025 [11]. - The long-term competitive landscape suggests that Meituan will continue to dominate, while JD and Taobao Instant Shopping will need to adapt to maintain their market positions [11][18].