Ping An Securities·2025-06-12 08:05Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of private car manufacturers, emphasizing their strong profitability and the acceleration of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) by 2025. Key players like BYD and Geely are expected to lead in this area [3][13] - The report notes that new energy vehicle (NEV) sales are projected to remain robust, particularly in the second half of 2025, driven by favorable policies and tax exemptions [12][10] - State-owned enterprises are facing profitability challenges but are actively collaborating with Huawei to transform their business models towards electrification and smart technologies [4][16] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Automotive Industry - The automotive sales in China surpassed 30 million units in 2023, with exports being a significant growth driver. Domestic sales have not yet returned to 2017 levels [6][7] - Policies such as the vehicle replacement program are expected to stimulate demand, potentially adding 3.5 million units in 2025 [11][10] 2. Major Private Car Manufacturers - Private manufacturers are showing strong operational resilience, with profitability driven by high-end strategies, exports, and NEV scale effects. BYD's net profit for 2024 is projected at 37 billion yuan, a 29.9% increase year-on-year [14][15] - The report indicates that private manufacturers are leading the penetration of ADAS in the market, with significant advancements expected by 2025 [24][25] 3. Major New Forces in Automotive - New entrants are under pressure to achieve self-sustainability, with a focus on new product launches to validate growth potential. Companies like Li Auto and Xpeng are expected to introduce new models in 2025 [32][40] - The report notes that while losses are narrowing for these companies, the urgency to establish self-funding capabilities is increasing due to changes in the financing environment [37][39] 4. Major State-Owned Enterprises - State-owned enterprises are experiencing weaker profitability due to various factors, including declining investment returns from joint ventures and challenges in achieving scale in NEVs [16][4] - Collaborations with Huawei are being intensified to facilitate the transition towards smart and electric vehicles [4][16] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in private manufacturers like Seres, BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Geely due to their strong profitability and market positioning. It also suggests monitoring new entrants like Li Auto, Xpeng, and Xiaomi for their growth potential [3][4]