Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-12 08:49Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is high considering the resumption of 3 - 4 shut - down enterprises, despite short - term enterprise malfunctions. [2] - Agricultural demand is lukewarm, and local agricultural demand has not formed a synergy due to pessimistic market sentiment. Domestic industrial rigid demand is weakening as the market enters the traditional off - season, and the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises has declined. [2] - Market sentiment is weak, urea factory shipments are sluggish, and domestic urea enterprise inventories continue to increase with a short - term slight upward trend. [2] - The UR2509 contract may continue to seek support in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1646 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 11 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. [2] - The main contract position is 307,079 lots, an increase of 20,038 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 25,044 lots, a decrease of 5,796 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts are 5,967 lots, a decrease of 75 lots. [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei are 1780 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1750 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Jiangsu 1750 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), Shandong 1740 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and Anhui 1810 yuan/ton (unchanged). [2] - The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports are both 360 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 94 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan. [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory is 20.5 tons (unchanged weekly), and enterprise inventory is 117.71 tons, an increase of 14.17 tons or 13.69% week - on - week. [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 89.43%, a decrease of 0.4%; the daily output is 205,600 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. [2] - Urea exports are 0 tons (unchanged), and the monthly output is 5,845,080 tons, a decrease of 242,000 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96%; the melamine operating rate is 64.31%, an increase of 1.33%. [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 191.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.2 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 343 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 585.07 tons, a decrease of 98.76 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,000 tons, an increase of 720 tons. [2] Industry News - As of June 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.71 tons, an increase of 14.17 tons or 13.69% week - on - week. [2] - As of June 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 24.5 tons, an increase of 4.5 tons or 19.51% week - on - week. [2] - As of June 12, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 141.32 tons, a decrease of 2.62 tons or 1.82% compared to the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 87.80%, a decrease of 1.63% compared to the previous period. [2] 4. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday. [2]