Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-12 08:54Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in September has increased, and the US dollar index has weakened; China's trade negotiator Li Chenggang stated that China and the US have reached a framework for implementing the consensus of the two heads of state's phone call and the Geneva talks. Fundamentally, Indonesia's PNBP policy implementation has increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore has remained stable; after the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, nickel ore supply has accelerated its recovery, and the domestic nickel ore supply has improved. Domestic smelters still maintain a high operating rate and stable production, but currently, raw material prices are high while nickel prices are in a downward trend, affecting the profits of other smelters, and some non - integrated smelters have chosen to cut production. On the demand side, stainless steel mills' profits are compressed, and the 300 - series has switched to producing other products; the demand for new energy vehicles continues to climb, but its proportion is small and the impact is limited. Recently, both supply and demand are weak, downstream purchases on demand, domestic inventories have decreased, but overseas inventories have remained stable. Technically, the short - side is stronger with an increase in positions, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light short position [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,790 yuan; the price difference between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,145 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 185 US dollars. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 85,673 lots, an increase of 9,201 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 7,047 lots, a decrease of 2,473 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 197,634 tons, an increase of 126 tons. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,616 tons, a decrease of 1,459 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 25,554 tons, unchanged. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 21,041 tons, a decrease of 72 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 121,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 990 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 196.05 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.88 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 291.41 million tons, an increase of 137.89 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 696.86 million tons, a decrease of 29.02 million tons. The average import unit price of nickel ore is 78.86 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32.99 US dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total nickel - iron production is 2.17 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.11 million metal tons. The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 18,746.54 tons, an increase of 10,187.11 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 81.69 million tons, a decrease of 19.64 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The production of 300 - series stainless steel is 182.43 million tons, a decrease of 7.75 million tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 61.14 million tons, an increase of 0.52 million tons [3] Industry News - The US May unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4%, with a market expectation of 2.5%; the US May unadjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, with a market expectation of 0.2%. The US May unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8%, with a market expectation of 2.9%; the US May seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, with a market expectation of 0.3%. China's trade negotiator Li Chenggang stated that China and the US have reached a framework for implementing the consensus of the two heads of state's phone call and the Geneva talks after the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [3]