瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, providing some support for prices, but the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories have increased slightly, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. It is recommended to short on rallies from a technical perspective [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,987.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.5 US dollars/ton. The 07 - 08 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai lead open interest was 81,138 lots, up 754 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 241 lots, up 379 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 43,731 tons, up 1,134 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 47,936 tons, up 1,436 tons; the LME lead inventory was 278,025 tons, down 1,950 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the lead main contract was - 190 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.55 US dollars/ton, up 0.4 US dollars/ton. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 15,796 yuan, down 1.87 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,570 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton. The number of production enterprises of recycled lead was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 51.28%, down 3.13%; the production of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 70.88%, up 0.31%; the weekly production of primary lead was 3.5 tons, up 0.11 tons [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 30 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the lead supply - demand balance of ILZSG was 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons; the global lead ore production of ILZSG was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average market price of waste batteries was 10,073.21 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 41,450,000, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,275 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 1,687.25 points, down 3.09 points; the monthly automobile production was 2.604 million, down 440,600; the monthly new energy vehicle production was 1.647 million, up 73,000 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology supports car companies' "60 - day payment period" commitment to promote the healthy development of the industry. Shenzhen will expand low - altitude economic scenarios and accelerate the implementation of demonstration applications. Trump said that the US and China have reached an agreement, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. The US added slightly more non - farm payrolls in May than expected, with significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data; the unemployment rate was stable, and the average hourly wage was better than expected; the bets on the Fed's interest rate cut decreased [2] 3.7 View Summary - The overall supply of recycled lead has limited growth. The price of 1 lead increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton, and the price of waste batteries increased by 50 - 300 yuan/ton. The market trading was generally light, and the support for lead prices was limited. The demand for charging piles and automobiles showed a slowdown. Overseas inventories decreased slightly but remained high, and demand was significantly affected by tariffs; domestic inventories decreased significantly due to production decline, and overseas prices restricted the upward space of domestic prices. The lead concentrate processing fee remained low, which affected the resumption of production of recycled lead and primary lead. The overall supply of Shanghai lead decreased, which supported prices to some extent, but the price was still under pressure due to weakening demand [2]