瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively stable supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum, it is currently in a situation of stable supply growth and positive demand expectations. It is recommended to mainly observe cautiously, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,395 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,895 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,516.50 US dollars/ton, up 22.50 US dollars [2]. - The LME aluminum注销仓单 was 35,800 tons, down 2,300 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 357,600 tons, down 2,300 tons. The Shanghai aluminum previous 20 - name net position was - 3,283 hands, up 4,308 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price was 20,650 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,255 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 540 yuan, up 100 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production in May was 732.30 million tons, down 15.22%; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons, down 30.02 million tons [2]. - The average price of broken raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of broken raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import quantity of primary aluminum was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the export quantity of primary aluminum was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum total production capacity was 4,520.20 million tons, up 2.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate was 97.65%, up 0.05% [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum product production was 576.40 million tons, down 21.77 million tons; the export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 54.70 million tons, up 2.70 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.60 million tons, up 3.37 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy was 1.66 million tons, down 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 9.40%, down 0.83%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 10.51%, up 0.01% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 10.11%, up 0.0065; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 0.78, up 0.0703 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. Both sides reached a principle agreement on measures to implement the important consensus of the two heads of state's phone call on June 5th [2]. - In May, China's automobile production and sales continued to grow. The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the export of automobiles also increased [2]. - The latest inflation data in the United States remained moderate. After the CPI data was released, Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point [2]. - The World Bank lowered the global economic growth forecast for this year from 2.7% to 2.3% [2].