Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-12 09:05Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The slowdown in the pace of inventory reduction, the potential smaller - than - expected reduction in production, and weak demand have put pressure on apple prices. However, the current low inventory provides some support, leading to short - term volatile operation. Follow - up attention should be paid to bagging conditions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 7,576 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25. The main contract's open interest is 95,032 lots, a decrease of 6,449. The number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 2,656 lots, an increase of 876 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4.5 yuan/jin, both with no week - on - week change. In Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75), it's 2.8 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial products) is 4.2 yuan/jin, also unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares. The national apple output is 4,960.17 million tons, an increase of 202.99 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.57 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg, and for Fuji apples it's 9.47 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg. The national total apple cold - storage inventory is 138.2 million tons, a decrease of 13.76 million tons. The Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.1, a decrease of 0.01, and the Shaanxi ratio is also 0.1, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly apple export volume is 70,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,136,680 million US dollars, an increase of 268,476 million US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.9 yuan/jin, with no change. The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.04 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan/kg, for pears it's 6.7 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg, for bananas it's 6.76 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan/kg, and for watermelons it's 4.24 yuan/kg, down 0.18 yuan/kg [2] Downstream Situation - The average daily early - morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 16.75 vehicles, a decrease of 3.5, and at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 9.75 vehicles, a decrease of 5, and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 26.75 vehicles, a decrease of 3.25 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 16.42%, an increase of 0.17%, and for at - the - money put options it's 16.45%, an increase of 0.21% [2] Industry News - As of June 11, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas is 127.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.74 million tons, with a slower inventory - clearing speed. The Shandong storage capacity ratio is 16.43%, a decrease of 0.86%, and the Shaanxi ratio is 8.9%, a decrease of 0.76%. The expected reduction in production in some areas has weakened. The expected reduction in Shaanxi this year is 5% - 10% [2]