从“管高价”到“管低价”：如何提振核心

Group 1: CPI Trends and Influences - Since February 2025, CPI has experienced four consecutive months of negative growth, primarily driven by food and energy prices, while core CPI has shown a significant recovery since September 2024[1] - The average CPI year-on-year growth from February to May 2025 was -0.25%, with food contributing -0.24 percentage points and energy contributing -0.29 percentage points, while core CPI contributed +0.28 percentage points[1] - The CPI growth target was adjusted from 3% to 2% in March 2025, indicating a shift in policy focus from preventing high prices to preventing low prices[1] Group 2: Core CPI Components - Core CPI can be divided into three main components: core goods, housing services, and other services, with housing services being a significant drag on core CPI growth[1] - Housing services prices have averaged 0.07% since 2022, down from 1.74% from 2013 to 2022, contributing approximately 0.4 percentage points to the decline in core CPI growth[1] - Other services prices are closely linked to overall wage trends, with a potential for price increases driven by rising demand and improved corporate profits[1] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To boost core CPI, service consumption subsidies are recommended, which could increase core CPI by approximately 0.3 percentage points, offsetting the negative impact from declining housing service prices[1] - The expected core CPI growth for the second half of 2025 is projected to reach around 1.0% before slightly declining, remaining within the 0.6%-1.0% range[1] - The core goods price is expected to rise initially before a slight decline, while housing service prices are anticipated to remain stable around zero[1]