美国5月CPI数据点评：通胀再降温，美联储决策空间充足

Inflation Data Summary - In May 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly up from 2.3% in the previous month, matching market expectations[5] - Core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month but below the expected 2.9%[5] Monthly Changes - The overall CPI month-on-month growth rate fell to 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%[8] - Core CPI month-on-month growth also decreased to 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%[8] Sector Analysis - Food CPI month-on-month growth rose to 0.3%, driven by higher prices in meat, poultry, fish, and eggs, contributing 0.04 percentage points to the overall CPI[8] - Energy CPI month-on-month growth turned negative, contributing -0.06 percentage points to the overall CPI, indicating reduced inflation pressure in this sector[8] Core Goods and Services - Core goods CPI month-on-month growth was flat at 0.0%, with car prices continuing to decline and clothing prices dropping to -0.4%[8] - Housing inflation remained stable, with housing CPI month-on-month growth holding steady at 0.3%, contributing 0.11 percentage points to the overall CPI[8] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve has ample decision-making space due to stable employment, declining inflation, and easing trade tensions, likely leading to a wait-and-see approach[8] - The outcome of international trade negotiations and the potential impact of tariffs on the US economy will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions[8] Risk Factors - There is a risk of inflation exceeding expectations, particularly with the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policies, which could hinder the Fed's ability to lower interest rates[40]